Concern about lack of dollars

The lack of the Argentine economy is one of its most worrying problems, and in this context according to a report from the consulting company Economy & Regions, implies that the exchange rate is not dominated and does not can be badured that it belongs to the past and that it has already ended

. the consultant can say that the economy has already hit its bottom and the worst "is over". On the contrary, it can not be ruled out that there will be new exchange cycles and pressure on the dollar.

There is a coincidence that for this, the main factor complicating the Argentine economy is the lack of dollars. [19659003] In this context, the negative consequences of the exchange of currencies would continue on "the agenda". In the monetary and financial sphere, the dollar probably continues to rise in nominal terms

In other words, capital inflows and a low nominal exchange rate should be excluded. At the same time, inflation will maintain an upward trend over the coming months. Inflation is expected to beat the dollar in the middle of the second half of the year, since the current devaluation is a record and the real exchange rate is the most overvalued in recent years eroding price competitiveness .

CHANGE

Certain sectors and economic agents, based on their microeconomic interests, have a negative view that the real exchange rate is eroding. However, at the macroeconomic level, it would be the least painful. Indeed, the only way in which the real exchange rate continues to increase and the competitiveness of the dollar increases, that is with a higher exchange rate, which is not even 'bread for today and hungry for tomorrow ".

Trading cycles over the next quarters will have negative seasonal variations with less investment, less consumption, recession, destruction of jobs (informal and formal), increased unemployment (according to what happens with the economically active population) and increased poverty and indigence. That is, without new exchange cycles, an unexpected scenario awaits us.

On the contrary, with more change, this discouraging scenario, which we will certainly have, will be more intense and worse, the report of Economía & Regions, the consultant that the current Minister of the Interior, Rogelio Frigerio grandson, founded.

There will be even more inflation with even less investment and consumption, less supply and aggregate demand; in short, more stagflation.

According to this badysis, bullfighting does not stop because of the underlying problems that are at its origin, namely the economic agents fleeing the peso and taking refuge in the dollar. In other words, in order to stop "true" exchange race, it is necessary to correct or eliminate the reasons that cause the public to lose weight and go to the dollar. Everything else is a circumstantial "patch"; that is, acts on the consequences and not on the causes.

POSITIVE DATA

Even in this context, positive data were recorded in June for the Argentine economy and especially for the foreign exchange market. Indeed, according to an annual report after five months with amounts close to the minimum, in June the settlement of the dollars reported by CiaraCec (the chambers that gather grain exporters) beats a record for the series since 2007 [19659003] Last month's liquidation meant a year-over-year increase of 44%, or $ 979 million compared to the amount liquidated in June 2017

Taking the January-to-June cumulation, the liquidation of agri-dollars increased by 2% in one year, data to buy with contraction of 9% interannual checked for cumulation January / May

According to Ieral begins to observe divergence in the behavior of variables related to the internal market and what happens with those related to foreign trade

In June, exports to Brazil increased by 16.5% (three-month moving average), the agri-industrial complex by 44%, and foreign sales of vehicles to the United States. tomobiles 16.2%

Imports are also starting to adjust: a figure for this variable is the recovery of VAT by customs, measured in dollars, which fell by 10.1% in June. 39, one year on the other. In the past two months, the price of soybeans has dropped by 10% in international markets and similar behavior is observed in corn values.

This rearrangement raises concerns and raises questions as to whether this negative trend can be deepened. The near future and the explanation of the recent price adjustment could be due to the Chinese soybean demand, less dynamic than expected.