Concerned about the dollar, the government came out to explain the "double blow" of today: the wind against the world and the wind of Brazil

"The atmosphere was getting better in the afternoon, in the morning, there was more worry and more outing. In the afternoon, there was more tranquility and a little more measured look, "they say of the Palacio de Hacienda after a closed market in which the dollar to the public rose 2% and hit the $ 43, to close at 42.86 dollars, according to the average of the Central Bank.

"There is a worry, yes, they asked us to go out and talk"acknowledged a senior official. The emphasis is to demonstrate that financial stability is important. "It is disturbing to note that while the exchange rate fluctuates with inflation that has not declined in January and February, people may think that the financial program is not working, while many things are working.", says the source.

Hacienda insists today to isolate itself, with a lot of volatility provoked totally by events coming from abroad. "The announcement of the number of activities in Europe, which was released this morning, caused concern that economic activity could be worse than expected in the United States. United States and Europe, "they said.

"The Fed has announced that it will not raise rates, but today, the US yield curve has been reversed, which has not happened since 2007 and is considered as a possible advance of a recession over the next 18 months. Remember that the Fed recently stated that it would not increase the rate because there is no overheating; now, we start to worry on the other side, of a possible recession"This background, they say, has caused many investors to pull out of their risky badet position, pushing currencies to devalue against the dollar. There, the peso is one of the favorite victims of the market.

Likewise, they feel that the movement of the local currency "was not bad" for others and for what could have been. This seems like a rare consolation. At the Central Bank, they are aligned on the same idea, they even use the same words.

"Today, the peso depreciated by less than 1.8%, while the real depreciated by 2.5% and the Turkish lira by 5%. circumstances, it is not advisable to oppose the current, it is not good to decouple the peso and it does not make sense to spend bullets or credibility when this n is not a question of weight but a global problem ", justifies the finance manager who asks for it. out of the record. "Monetary policy pulls before these momentary movements or imbalances, before the real depreciates by 2.5% and the peso by 10%, and not now. We must understand that we have the double blow: the world and Brazil"he said.

The government believes that Brazil is coming out of the honeymoon and that it is speeding up and has a bigger local impact. A fundamental part of the "double blow". The arrest of Michel Temer This suggests that the coalition may be in danger and that it will not be able to get out of the pension reform and that is the criterion that the market takes to see if Jair Bolsonsaro It will be successful or not. "The risk is that Brazil is a bit expensive for many and prices reflect this possibility. What matters to us is the activity, they bring nothing of Lava Jato. Seeing a Brazil that grows to 2-3% fills us with hope because there is a spill, "adds the source.

Dujovne's men remember that The closing level of the dollar today, around $ 41.80, is very similar to that of September. And it clings to the dollars that will be sold from April, when the Treasury Treasury's authorized Treasury Board auctions that will "bring stability" will begin. This call for bids and the "very important harvest", as well as monetary policy and IMF support, constitute the government's weapons to deal with an electoral and volatile 2019. A year which, for the moment, does not give up.