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Another dismal record. Brazil on Tuesday recorded more than 4,000 deaths from covid-19 for the first time in the past 24 hours, according to data from the Ministry of Health. On the one hand, it is the result of data retention for weekends and the Easter holidays, days when diagnostic labs performed fewer analyzes. On the other hand, specialists announce an April with even higher death rates.
“We can look forward to a very sad, very tragic month for Brazil. The transmission rate is still very high and the vaccination rate is still below what is desirable ”, explains Dr Margareth Dalholm, researcher at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) and one of the most experienced pulmonologists in the country. . The country, which has a population of 212 million, has recorded 4,195 deaths, bringing the total to 336,947 in more than thirteen months of pandemic. As of Tuesday, there were also 86,979 new infections, bringing the total to 13.1 million.
In a bulletin published this Tuesday by the Covid-19 Observatory of the Fiocruz Foundation, the institution “warns that the pandemic could remain at critical levels throughout the month of April, prolonging the health crisis and the collapse of health services and systems. Brazilian states and capitals ”.
In addition, there was a further increase in the death rate, from 3.3% to 4.2%. This indicator was around 2.0% at the end of 2020. The researchers believe that this growth could be a consequence of “the lack of capacity to diagnose, in a correct and timely manner, severe cases, added to the overload of hospitals” .
A new record was already expected since the start of the day, since São Paulo, the most populous and richest state in Brazil, also recorded its highest number of deaths since the start of the pandemic: 1,389 in 24 hours . However, Dr João Gabbardo, coordinator of the Covid-19 Contingency Center, said that “the acceleration of intensive care admissions has turned negative”, which “means that the number of new admissions is lower than the number of discharges” the health care system begins to relax. Despite this, the expert warned that all care is extremely important in the days to come. ICU bed occupancy rates continue to be very high, exceeding 89% both in the capital of São Paulo and throughout the state.
For the neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis, the figures published on Tuesday are in line with an alert launched last Friday by Brazilian researchers at the University of Washington, in the United States. “In the best-case scenario, in July, Brazil could reach half a million deaths. In the worst case, 600,000 deaths, ”explains the specialist. He also says that in some places the number of deaths is already higher than the number of births and is already higher than the number of deaths. In the case of Rio Grande Sul, preliminary data from March indicates that there were 4,000 additional deaths, he said. “It is possible that in April, deaths will exceed births across the country. The entire southern region of Brazil is already tied, ”he adds.
For Margareth Dalholm, the tragic scenario in which Brazil finds itself can only be overcome if the country promotes a quarantine of at least two weeks at the same time as the vaccination campaign takes a new rhythm and accelerates. “We need to vaccinate a lot of people and very quickly, so that we can really interfere with this transmission. It makes no sense to wait until the end of the year to reach 70% of Brazil’s vaccinated population. And it is needless to say that it is enough to vaccinate 70 million people, ”he says. “We need to vaccinate 150 million people in Brazil so that we can have adequate community immunity. And we have to do it until the end of the semester, ”he says.
Dalholm recalls that the Unified Health System (SUS) has the capacity to immunize two million additional people per day. So far, the first million has not been reached. States are expected to start immunizing the 60-year-old population in April. To date, just over 20 million Brazilians have received the first dose of the vaccine. In other words, around 10% of the population, far behind countries like the United States, Chile, the United Kingdom or Israel. “The pace is very slow. It is unacceptable that health posts are closed on public holidays. They should be vaccinating all the time, ”he says.
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