Coronavirus: How aggressive is the Indian variant and why so little is known about it

Scientists around the world are studying a variant of the coronavirus identified in India. However, they do not know how far it has spread or if it is the one causing the second wave of Covid in the country.

Here are the main questions surrounding it:

Viruses mutate all the time, producing different versions or variations of themselves.

Most of these mutations are insignificant and some can even make the virus less dangerous, but others can make you more contagious and more resistant to vaccines.

This variant, officially known as B.1.617, it was first detected in India in October.

India reported 200,000 cases of covid per day since April 15 well above the peak of 93,000 daily cases recorded last year. And now the deaths have also increased.

“India’s overpopulation and density make it a perfect incubator for this virus to record mutations,” says Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, UK.

However, the spate of cases in India may have been caused by high concentrations of people and the lack of preventive measures such as the use of masks or social distancing.

Dr Jeffrey Barrett of the Wellcome Sanger Institute (UK) says there may also be cause and effect relationship with the new variant, but evidence is lacking.

He notes that the variant is known to have been around since the end of last year: “If you’re behind the wave in India, it took you several months to get to this point, which suggests it’s probably less transmissible. than the Kent B117 variant. “

Scientists believe that existing vaccines will help control the variant when it comes to preventing someone from getting seriously ill.

According to an article published in Nature According to Professor Gupta and his fellow researchers, some variants will inevitably escape current vaccines.

As a result, changes in vaccine design will be needed to make them more effective.

However, it is likely that currently available vaccines are slowing the spread of the disease.

“For most people, these vaccines can make the difference between being asymptomatic or mildly ill and ending up in the hospital at the risk of dying,” says Dr. Jeremy Kamil, virologist at Louisiana State University.).

“Please take the first vaccine they offer you. Don’t make the mistake of doubting and waiting for an ideal vaccine, ”he adds.

Samples are not widespread enough across the country to determine how far or how fast the variant is spreading.

It was detected in 220 of 361 samples collected between January and March in the western state of Maharashtra.

It was also detected in at least 21 countries, according to the GISAID global database.

For example in United Kingdom 103 cases have been identified of this variant since February 22.

Most Indian travelers are now banned from the UK.

And although the UK healthcare system has listed the Indian variant as one of many ‘variants under investigation’, it does not currently consider it serious enough to be classified as a ‘variant of concern’.

The scientists They do not yet know if this variant is more infectious or resistant to vaccines.

Virologist Kamil says one of its mutations is similar to those seen in others identified in South Africa and Brazil.

Both of these mutations can help the virus escape antibodies in the immune system that fight the coronavirus based on experience with a previous infection or a vaccine.

Of all the variants discovered, Most worrying right now is the one identified in the UK, which is dominant in the country and has spread to at least 50 others.

“I doubt the Indian variant is more contagious than the British variant, and we shouldn’t panic,” says Kamil.

Much of the data on the Indian variant is incomplete, say the scientists, who have very few samples: 298 in India and 656 in the world, against more than 384,000 in the British variant.

And after the first reported cases in India, fewer than 400 cases of the variant have been detected worldwide, Kamil says.

BBC Mundo