Crisis in Venezuela: 4 possible scenarios, from a transition to war – 30/01/2019

Venezuela remains convulsed while Nicolás Maduro clings to power (considered illegitimate several Western countries) and the leader of the opposition Juan Guaidó wants to lead the country to a clean election after being proclaimed "president in charge".

None of the 2 loose.

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Maduro has the support of the army, which protects him for the moment, as well as his allies such as China, Russia, Turkey and Cuba.

Guaidó enjoys popular support and also that of the United States (Donald Trump recognized it immediately), the European Union and the neighbors of South America as Argentina and Brazil, among others.

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According to Joe Parkin Daniels in the English newspaper The Guardian, 4 "most probable" scenarios appear in the Venezuelan crisis.

1) Mature endure (but how much?)

The Bolivarian leader already survived 2 challenges: the mbadive demonstrations of 2014 (which have since led to the prison opposition Leopoldo López, founder with Guaidó of the Voluntad People's Party) and to the unrest of 2017, then more than 120 dead after removing the Middle National Assembly.

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"It's the least feasible option", supports the badysis. Despite the support of the Chinese, Russians and Turks, there are also unprecedented international pressure.

Military commanders have been loyal, but young officers do not follow this path: the weekend has changed the total in Washington José Luis Silva Silva, like the consul in Miami Scarlet Salazar.

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In addition, the power that Maduro gave to the military with important positions in the national oil company PDVSA could be eroded through sanctions announced by the United States.

"If Maduro meets this challenge, he should keep the military on his side and that means finding a way to pay them," Parkin Daniels said.

2) Another coup d'état or military

It's a scenario that would not benefit people. Better than that (business as usual: the business of always): kleptocracy, mismanagement and authoritarianism.

The potential successors are Maduro's lieutenant, Diosdado Cabelloand the Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino Lópezboth under military command but despised by many Venezuelans.

Civilians can be the vice Delcy Rodríguez or his predecessor Tareck El Aissami: "Both are international outcasts"

None of these options would calm the opposition, which seeks to recover democracy. And so the armed conflict would appear.

3) "popular power" or negotiated exit

Maduro has everything to lose he agrees to give power and that there is a return to democracy. And even then, I would not accept responsibility. Neither the thousands who endorsed his regime.

That is why Guaidó proposed amnesties to the military to help restore the democratic order.

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Mature and her entourage most likely They should leave the country. But where would they go …

"Its only big allies are Russia, China, Cuba and Turkey, and it's not clear what motivation would they have to receive them", notes Parkin Daniels.

4) war

Maduro blames Venezuela's difficulties for decades an imperialist campaign of "economic war" led by the United States.

Analysts fear, however, that "hawks" on both sides will lead to a real army confrontation.

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Due to the migration of some 3 million Venezuelans (the most important in the modern history of Latin America) neighboring countries "desperately seek a quick solution" to the crisis.

"If the trend gets worse," says Phil Gunson's consultant from the NGO Crisis Group, it will increase the pressure in favor of a military attack. "

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According to the text of the guardian, this scenario succeeds "distant but conceivable"taking into account that Brazilian and Colombian right-wing governments could join US-led coalition against Maduro.

The attitude of Councilor Trump John Bolton, who showed a notebook that read "5,000 soldiers in Colombia", has swelled speculation in recent hours.

Councilor Adam Isacson warns: "A war between Colombia and Venezuela it would be devastating"