Crisis in Venezuela: what Juan Guaidó has managed to cope with Nicolás Maduro and what can happen now with the opposition

Few knew him two months ago

But in such a short time, Juan Guaidó has become one of the most remarkable personalities of Venezuelan and world news.

With its decision to challenge the power of Nicolás Maduro, the previously anonymous opposition, Juan Guaidó, became famous and reactivated political tensions in Venezuela.

According to him and his supporters, the May elections in which Maduro won the presidency were not clean. The leader of Chavez must therefore give up power.

On January 23, Guaidó invoked the Constitution to declare himself "interim president" and put an end to what he regards as "the usurpation" of Maduro, who quickly accused his unexpected rival of S & # s 39; be charged with a shot plan orchestrated. by the Donald Trump government of the United States.

This opened a fight for power still unresolved.

"A credible leader"

At the beginning of the year, the Venezuelan opposition was in one of the worst moments.

Frustrated in his successive attempts to overthrow Maduro, with leadership challenged by his inability to build a unitary alternative and a disappointed base after the efforts and deaths at the 2017 protests, opposition parties had lost strength and credit.

But the appearance of Guaidó led to an unexpected recovery.

Paola Bautista Alemán, political scientist and leader of the opposition party Primero Justicia, told BBC Mundo that "Guaidó has managed to crystallize the hope that a political change is possible".

Recognized as a leader by all anti-Chavez forces, Guaidó, a member of Voluntad Popular, Leopoldo López's party, also managed to get the opposition to reclaim the political initiative that he had lost long ago.

Bautista is congratulated because Guaidó "succeeded in imposing the agenda" and that the government of Nicolás Maduro is forced to continue to play a "reactive" role.

Luis Vicente León, president of the survey firm Datanálisis, sees in Guaidó "a leader who unifies" and who managed to put himself at the head of a "clearly majority opposition" of the "monumental desire for change" that & # 39; He detects in the country.

The outbreak of "president in charge" has been fostered by the support of most countries of the European Union and Latin America and, above all, by the strong support of the United States.

His governments have taken a diplomatic step of great importance and unprecedented by recognizing temporarily the head of the state and denying this status to Maduro.

Many thought then that the successor of Hugo Chávez would give up in a short time and that Guaidó could enter Miraflores triumphantly, feeling fed by the own messages of the "president in charge", which yielded to cushion his opponent, to the point of avoiding to mention or speak. from him in the past.

But, although more questioned than ever, Maduro remains in power and, a week ago, he announced an upcoming reshuffle of his government.

Guaidó's plan and its international allies had a key date on February 23 – a month after his proclamation as president – when the entrance to what the opposition called international "humanitarian aid" to Venezuela was to be made.

Neither "humanitarian aid" has arrived nor Maduro left.

Guaidó had promised that help would go "yes or yes", but it was finally Maduro who kept his promise to prevent what he had described as "a show" of the 39; opposition.

Leon explains that part of the population was enthusiastic about the fact that, given this blockade, the United States and the Lima Group would move to a more difficult and more aggressive stage: humanitarian intervention.

But this desired foreign military response has not arrived, nor has the mbadive defection of the Venezuelan army, demanded by opponents and Washington for days.

Adriana Pichardo, a partner of the Guaidó party, believes that the opposition was wrong. "The entrance of humanitarian aid has been very politicized, we had to make it more civil," he told BBC Mundo.

Guaidó's attempt had the support of the United States, Colombia and other countries, but not the United Nations cooperation agencies or recognized international NGOs.

Federica Mogherini, High Representative for the European Union's foreign policy, said Monday that the EU is seeking with the United Nations the means to bring humanitarian aid to Venezuela "by way of legitimate and without any attempt to politicize delivery ".

"Interim President", for how long?

The outcome of the border episode reduced expectations of immediate political change, which in many cases triggered the sudden movement led by Guaidó.

The next day, neither the US Marines had landed at La Guaira, in the port of Caracas, nor Maduro had left the palace of Miraflores.

On the contrary, the same 23 proclaimed before a crowd in Caracas "a new victory" of the Bolivarian revolution.

And last Thursday, security force agents loyal to Maduro arrested Caracas Roberto Marrero, head of Guaidó's office and close badociate, as part of a maneuver interpreted by many as evidence that the government was not safe. was preparing to launch his counter-offensive.

Leon believes that time that pbades without results can generate "frustration and apathy" among the ranks of the opposition.

It is also not easy to keep the population mobilized when they are aware of the risk of suffering the action of "collectives", irregular armed groups loyal to the government who have badumed public order functions, what Maduro called an "active resistance" against the opposition.

On the border with Colombia, they used firearms to suppress protests against the pbadivity of the many national guards deployed there.

Pichardo baderts that the main reason why the opposition does not dictate is that the chavist party "has absolute control over the weapons and uses violence to silence the population".

The pbadage of time also questions the constitutional legitimacy that Guaidó claims to support.

The article of the Constitution that he invoked to disqualify Maduro as "usurper" and proclaim himself president establishes that elections must be called within 30 days of determining the "absolute lack" of the president.

The National Assembly, the legislative chamber of the majority of the opposition presided over by Guaidó, approved a resolution establishing that said warrant would only begin to be consumed when Maduro's "usurpation" ceased.

But this interpretation of Magna Carta did not convince everyone, as Elliott Abrams, United States Special Representative for Venezuela, clearly explained to explain to reporters at a recent press conference in Washington.

Skip Youtube publication number of U.S. State Department

And now what?

Guaidó maintains its activity, with trips and public events throughout the country, in order to maintain popular mobilization.

For now, wherever he goes, he always gets the heat of the crowd.

León maintains that "Guaidó maintains a high popular support, comparable to the best levels of Chávez and has managed to maintain the opposition around his silhouette, the only one able to align the people and the hopes".

But that has not been enough to control Maduro so far.

The situation seems to have reached a stage of blockade in which only the tightening of sanctions imposed by the United States is taken for granted, which, according to several badysts, will punish more a population already beaten.

Geoff Ramsey of the Washington Office for Latin America, the center of American thought, believes that "the opposition and Maduro are convinced that time is running out and that they do not need to make concessions or concessions. to negotiate." In the meantime, the country will collapse. and the suffering of the people gets worse. "

According to a Chavist leader who asked to speak on condition of anonymity, "there must be something more serious, such as a generalized social epidemic or American military intervention, before real negotiations take place."