Cristina and the unthinkable plan to seduce investors

The presentation of a book of intimate prose and furious critics on Macri will be the means chosen by Cristina Kirchner to enter the electoral arena, while advancing in her economic plan facing a possible third government.

Although it was not confirmed until last night that he was going to formalize his candidacy, the announcement of his only public appearance from today, At 8 pm, "Sincerely" upset the Book Fair, with exhausted tickets and extraordinary logistics to guarantee security in the Jorge Luis Borges hall, which can accommodate 1,000 people.

The rest of the 15,000 expected supporters will follow him on two giant screens arranged inside and outside La Rural.

Expectations for the former president were fueled by the deluge of reactions that provoked her mediatised return to the center of the political scene, after a period of monastic silence and her travels to Cuba for health of his daughter Florencia.

So, in the space of a week, she was targeted by the government, which blamed her for the last exchange and also received the letter from Macri, paradoxically, so that & # 39; She sits at a table with the rest of the opposition. , the Church, businessmen and the CGT.

In one case, the answer was that macrismo had actually revealed the false rumor that a possible Kirchner government would fail. In the other, what they saw in their environment is an "electoral maneuver" to get him off the stage.

His presence before politicians, culture and authorized journalists will serve to strengthen his image and reconnect with his supporters.

Until now, his decision to avoid a frontal conflict with Macri complicated the strategy of polarization of Jaime Durán Barba, without a visible opponent to blame the ills of the economy.

The senator, however, sided "sincerely" to be sent against the "economic and social disaster," a "plan" that she said of her "persecution" across the eleven court cases that l & # 39; 39 conducted for alleged acts of corruption.

And, secondarily, to calm the militancy, disconcerted by the lack of certainty and the unresolved dispute in Peronism before the closure of the lists in June.

Signs to the school

The operatic clamor will run amid Kirchner's visible efforts to send signals to the establishment and dispel an economic uncertainty about the possible return to power of the exmandataria or its space within the framework of a non-democratic anti-chaotic alliance.

His economic team, with Axel Kicillof at the helm, is already working the day after December 10th. While a new International Monetary Fund mission landed yesterday in Argentina, the former Minister of the Economy traveled to Washington to meet the Chamber of Commerce of the United States today. United States, the authorities of the "Progressive Group" of Congress and the Organization for Human Rights in America (WOLA).

This is Kicillof's first year visit to the United States, where he will meet Larry Cohen, Socialist Democrat advisor Bernie Sanders, as well as union and social union leaders from the American Postal Workers Union.

The tour will continue Friday with the conference to be held at 10:30 at the Wilson Center, a think tank for which Sergio Mbada and José Luis Espert have already pbaded.

We expect the presence of investors, who will be attentive to what the national deputy can say about "the present and the future of the Argentine economy", after the meeting of Yesterday with the leaders of Manuel López Obrador's center-left government in Mexico, where he highlighted the "coincidences" between the Mexican president and Cristina and opted for a regional alliance to fight against neoliberalism.

At the center of political power, they consider him a defining personality of Argentine politics. "Axel Kicillof, legislator and member of the Peronist Front for Victory, is one of the most critical reforms and austerity in favor of the Macri market. Former Minister of the Economy chaired by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner from 2013 to 2015, Mr. Kicillof is still considered one of his closest advisers, "reads Wilson Center's call. ..

Fund, with conditions

The roadshow Kicillof in the north is part of the economic revival plan with which they speculate near Cristina Kirchner, whose general guidelines include an initial shock on consumption, the dedollarization of tariffs and the reprogramming of the debt maturities of 2020 for about $ 18 billion.

In this context, the reformulation of the agreement with the IMF of an amount of 57 000 million dollars is essential. This would, as expected, provide greater leeway to avoid the "conditioning" of economic policy and the combination of reforms in which Macri could not progress through the opposition of Peronism and CGT.

The relationship imagined by the former official is that of a negotiation from a "position of strength". In "Y ahora qué", the book he presented last week at La Rural is an illustrative anecdote about a series of meetings he had at Kirchner's last administration with staff technicians of the Fund.

"You do not come to take me for a position of Minister of the Economy, you have to make yourself available to see how they can help the development of a democratic and sovereign country," he said in an interview, among them XXI century.

Kicillof observes with interest the "miracle" of Portugal, an economy that has resumed in recent years under the government of the socialist Antonio Costa, after the strong adjustment applied by the previous center-right leadership.

The experiment contains some of the condiments applied at the time by Kirchnerism, such as the timely cancellation of debt from the IMF. But he also raises some inconsistencies with the myth created around him: although Costa has abandoned the austerity measures, he has not eliminated labor reform and remains under the control of the troika, while the recovery started before taking office in 2015 remains moderate.

What is clear is that with the closing of the markets, the next government will need the funds from the agency. So there are already economists close to Kicillof who are starting to see among the staff an indirect partner to revive the economy.

"Paradoxically, the problem is not the Fund but Macri, he chose the worst and most regressive options," he said. iProfessionnel Emmanuel Álvarez Agis, chief of the PxQ consulting firm and former deputy minister of the economy during the last term of Cristina.

He evoked the categorical rejection of mobile retention by the president, a move suggested by Christine Lagarde's team that he finally had to adopt by the end of 2018 to offset the impact of the recession on collection.

There would be less harmony with tax reform, labor and social security, three points that Macri included in his 10-point deal that drew the company's mbadive support, but sparked the rejection of Máximo Kirchner and the opposition labor movement, even Sergio Mbada and Roberto Lavagna.

"The government is on the right side of the fund, there must be an agreement with the fund, and in terms of structural reforms, there will not be much agreement," says Álvarez Agis, who, well, that focused on his consulting firm, recognizes that he always tries to ideas contributing to Peronism, especially to Kicillof, and even to several Macri officials when they need their consultation.

"I give my opinion so Cristina asks me, change or a customer," he says.

Wages, fees and engines

One of the first steps Cristina badessed was a consumption shock in relation to inflation, the change in the pension discount rate, which was lower than last year's prices, and the increase in child benefits (AUH) , linked to the same indicator as the badets. These measures, they say, would allow industry and employment to start.

"The driving force is consumption and you have to redefine public spending.Today, you are spending more than ever on debt instead of favoring the domestic market," said Santiago Fraschina, director of economics. at the University of Avellaneda., which will present tomorrow at the Patria Institute "Pasaron Cosas", a critical balance in a book format on the Macri economy.

The basic idea is to regain the "philosophy" of Kirchner governments, although they warn that the economic situation will be worse than in 2003.

After a strong devaluation and the anticipated departure of his predecessor because of the repression exerted on the bridge of Pueyrredon, Néstor Kirchner continued the program of Eduardo Duhalde, with the validity of the deductions at the source and the social plans, renegotiating the Debt and increasing decree I was then at the Ministry of Economy, Lavagna, today in the Federal Peronism that competes with Cristina.

"The international context is different, we do not like the tools, but the goal that is full employment, industrialization and progressive income distribution," Fraschina said.

In parallel with growth, the State would strengthen its collection, now affected by the decline in consumption and activity, two items reducing VAT revenues, social security contributions and export duties and the 'import.

With more "cake" to administer, says Cristina, economic and political tensions will calm down. For example, there would be no choice between reducing Vaca Muerta subsidies or retirement benefits. The second step would be to set source deductions with a mobile and differentiated system exempting small producers. A measure in which Kicillof already has the support of the Agrarian Federation.

To reduce inflation, the "R" plan provides for a dedollarization of customs duties, one of the main elements that, along with food, now accelerates inflation. In March, INDEC recorded an increase of 4.7% per month and 54.7% over the last 12 months, the highest level since 1992, which pushed Macri to relaunch Caring Prices and partially freeze fares until the elections.

This emblematic program of kirchnerism, which during the last period of Cristina generated tensions with supermarkets and, in some cases, shortages, will be completed by the law of gondolas promoted by the social manager Juan Grabois, the friend of Pope who faced this week the owner Free Market, Marcos Galperín, following the decision of the government to derive the payment of social plans on its digital platform.

In any case, the changes will involve new relationships with the business world. Kicillof has already met senior executives, who generally prefer to keep these peaks secret.

"Organically, we do not have a meeting with your team," said an UIA industrialist.which implies that they do it individually. In the economist's plan, the industry, construction and strategic sectors (oil, energy and transportation) are drivers of development.

These realignments, with players in the middle of the Techint group, generate internal discussions with other sectors. For example, SMEs that were gaining ground in their day with Trade Secretary Guillermo Moreno were demanding a more active role. in the future, with a place in the Ministry of Production and a law on commercial entities, which regulates representation in private rooms.

"Cristina told us that it was good to be able to unionize entrepreneurs," said Leo Bilansky, coordinator of the Patria Institute's National Employers' Commission.

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