Cristina and the unthinkable plan to seduce investors

The presentation of a book of intimate prose and furious critics on Macri will be the means chosen by Cristina Kirchner to enter the electoral arena, while advancing in her economic plan facing a possible third government.

Although he has not yet confirmed until last night that he was going to formalize his candidacy, the announcement of his only public appearance starting today at 8 pm to present "Sincerely" has upset the Book fair. In addition to exhausting the tickets, unusual logistics were put in place to guarantee security in the Jorge Luis Borges hall, with a capacity of 1,000 people.

The rest of the 15,000 expected supporters must follow him on two giant screens arranged inside and outside La Rural.

Expectations were fueled by the bursts of reactions that provoked his mediatised return to the center of the political scene, after a period of monastic silence and his travels to Cuba for the health of his daughter Florencia.

So, in the space of a week, she was targeted by the government, which blamed her for the last exchange and also received the letter from Macri, paradoxically, so that & # 39; She sits at a table with the rest of the opposition. , the Church, businessmen and the CGT.

In one case, the answer was that macrismo had actually revealed the false rumor that a possible Kirchner government would fail. In the other, what they saw in their environment is an "electoral maneuver" to get him off the stage.

His presence before politicians, culture and authorized journalists will serve to strengthen his image and reconnect with his supporters.

Until now, his decision to avoid a frontal conflict with Macri complicated the strategy of polarization of Jaime Durán Barba, without a visible opponent to blame the ills of the economy.

However, the senator decided "sincerely" to be rushed against the "economic and social disaster", a plan which, according to her, required that she be persecuted in the eleven court cases that were investigating her for alleged acts of corruption.

Through his message, he will also seek to calm the militancy, disconcerted by the unresolved dispute in Peronism before the closure of the lists in June.

Signs to the school

The operatic clamor will run amid Kirchner's visible efforts to send signals to the establishment and dispel an economic uncertainty about the possible return to power of the exmandataria or its space within the framework of a non-democratic anti-chaotic alliance.

His economic team, with Axel Kicillof at the helm, is already working the day after December 10th. While a new International Monetary Fund mission landed yesterday in Argentina, the former Minister of the Economy traveled to Washington to meet the Chamber of Commerce of the United States today. United States, the authorities of the "Progressive Group" of Congress and the Organization for Human Rights in America (WOLA).

This is Kicillof's first year visit to the United States, where he will meet Larry Cohen, Socialist Democrat advisor Bernie Sanders, as well as union and social union leaders from the American Postal Workers Union.

The tour will continue Friday with the conference to be held at 10:30 at the Wilson Center, a think tank for which Sergio Mbada and José Luis Espert have already pbaded.

We expect the presence of investors, who will be attentive to what the national deputy can say about "the present and the future of the Argentine economy", title of his lecture. It will be after the meeting that he had yesterday with officials of the left-wing government of Manuel López Obrador's government in Mexico, where he highlighted the "coincidences" between the Mexican president and Cristina and opted for a regional alliance to fight against neoliberalism.

At the center of political power, they consider him a defining personality of Argentine politics. "Axel Kicillof, legislator and member of the Peronist Front for Victory, is one of the most critical reforms and austerity in favor of the Macri market. Former Minister of the Economy chaired by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner from 2013 to 2015, Mr. Kicillof is still considered one of his closest advisers, "reads Wilson Center's call. ..

Fund, with conditions

The roadshow from Kicillof to the north is part of the economic revival plan with which they speculate near Cristina Kirchner. Its general guidelines include an initial shock on consumption, dedollarization of tariffs and the rescheduling of debt maturities by 2020 for an amount of 18 billion US dollars.

In this context, the reformulation of the agreement with the IMF of an amount of 57 000 million dollars is essential. This would, as expected, provide greater leeway to avoid the conditioning of economic policy and the combination of reforms in which Macri could not progress through the opposition of Peronism and the CGT.

The relationship imagined by the former official is that of a negotiation from a "position of strength". In "Y ahora qué", the book he presented last week at La Rural is an illustrative anecdote about a series of meetings he had at Kirchner's last administration with staff technicians of the Fund.

"You do not come to take me for a post of Minister of the Economy, you must make yourself available to see what can contribute to the development of a democratic and sovereign country," he said at from an interview with Alejandro Bercovich, one of several edition of Siglo XXI.

Kicillof observes with interest the "miracle" of Portugal, an economy that has resumed in recent years under the government of the socialist Antonio Costa, after the strong adjustment applied by the previous center-right leadership.

The experiment contains some of the condiments applied at the time by Kirchnerism, such as the timely cancellation of debt from the IMF. But he also raises some inconsistencies with the myth created around him: although Costa has abandoned the austerity measures, he has not eliminated labor reform and remains under the control of the troika, while the recovery started before taking office in 2015 remains moderate.

What is clear is that before the markets close, the next government will need agency funds. So there are already economists close to Kicillof who are starting to see among the staff an indirect partner to revive the economy.

"Paradoxically, the problem is not the Fund but Macri, he chose the worst and most regressive options," he said. iProfessionnel Emmanuel Álvarez Agis, chief of the PxQ consulting firm and former deputy minister of the economy during the last term of Cristina.

He evoked the categorical rejection of mobile retentions by the president, a move suggested by Christine Lagarde's team, that he would have finally had to adopt before the end of 2018 with the setting of export duties. additional to offset the impact of the recession on the market. Fund raising

There would be less harmony with tax reform, labor and social security, three points that Macri included in his 10-point deal that drew the company's mbadive support, but sparked the rejection of Máximo Kirchner and the opposition trade union movement, even Sergio Mbada and Roberto Lavagna.

"The government is on the right side of the fund, there must be an agreement with the fund and, in terms of structural reforms, there will not be as much agreement," says Álvarez Agis.

Although he is now concentrated in his consulting firm, the economist acknowledges that he is still trying to "bring ideas" to Peronism, especially to Kicillof, and even to several Macri officials when they need to consult it. "I give my opinion so Cristina asks me, change or a customer," he says.

Wages, fees and engines

One of the first steps they evaluate near Cristina is a consumption shock in three ways: parity on inflation, new discount rate of retirements – which was lagging behind prices – and an increase in family allowances ( AUH), related to the same indicator as wages. These measures, they say, would allow industry and employment to start.

"The driving force is consumption and you have to redefine public spending.Today, you are spending more than ever on debt instead of favoring the domestic market," said Santiago Fraschina, director of economics. at the University of Avellaneda., which will present tomorrow at the Patria Institute "Pasaron Cosas", a critical balance in a book format on the Macri economy.

The basic idea is to regain the "philosophy" of Kirchner governments, although they warn that the economic situation will be worse than in 2003.

After a sharp devaluation and the anticipated departure of his predecessor due to the repression of the Pueyrredon Bridge, Néstor Kirchner continues the program of Eduardo Duhalde. In addition to maintaining retentions and social plans, he renegotiated debt and increased wages and pensions by decree. I was then at the Ministry of Economy, Lavagna, today in the federal Peronism that competes with Cristina.

"The international context is different, we do not like the tools, but the goal that is full employment, industrialization and progressive income distribution," Fraschina said.

In parallel with growth, the State would strengthen its collection, now affected by the decline in consumption and activity, two items reducing VAT revenues, social security contributions and export duties and the 'import.

And with more "cake" to administer – they say – economic and political tensions will loosen up. For example, there would be no choice between reducing Vaca Muerta subsidies or retirement benefits. The second step would be to set source deductions with a mobile and differentiated system exempting small producers. A measure in which Kicillof already has the support of the Agrarian Federation.

To reduce inflation, the "R" plan provides for dedollarization of customs duties, one of the main elements that, along with food, is now driving up prices. In March, INDEC recorded an increase of 4.7% per month and 54.7% over the last 12 months, the highest level since 1992, which pushed Macri to relaunch Caring Prices and partially freeze fares until the elections.

This emblematic program of kirchnerism, which during the last period of Cristina generated tensions with supermarkets and, in some cases, shortages, will be completed by the law of gondolas promoted by the social manager Juan Grabois, the friend of Pope who clashed with the Mercado Libre owner, Marcos Galperín, following the government's decision to derive the payment of allowances on his digital platform.

In any case, the changes will involve new relationships with the business world. Kicillof has already met senior executives, who generally prefer to keep these peaks secret.

"Organically, we do not have a meeting with your team," said an UIA industrialist.which implies that they do it individually. In the economist's plan, the industry, construction and strategic sectors (oil, energy and transportation) are drivers of development.

These realignments, with players in the middle of the Techint group, generate internal discussions with other sectors. For example, SMEs that were gaining ground in their day with Trade Secretary Guillermo Moreno were demanding a more active role. in the future. They demand a place in the Ministry of Production and a law on commercial entities, which regulates representation in private rooms.

"Cristina told us that it was good to be able to unionize entrepreneurs," said Leo Bilansky, coordinator of the Patria Institute's National Employers' Commission.

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