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When Cristina reigned at Balcarce 50, the world and regional order had for main actors Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, Angela Merkel, Pope Francisco, Hugo Chávez, Jose Mújica, Evo Morales, Lula da Silva and the brothers Fidel and Raúl Castro. As the Islamic State grew in the Middle East, the Wall Street bubble burst and the G20 launched its stabilization program around the planet.
CFK has a binary design of the global agenda and its political perspective of the world is aligned to the rhythm of their ideological prejudices and their
rare knowledge of contemporary history. Cristina draws a thick line between evil and good, and cares little about whether Argentina integrates the US zone of influence or whether Iran is a regime that denies the Holocaust and causes the disappearance of the State of Israel.
The dogmatic inspiration of CFK, which in its first two mandates put the country far from the centers of power, is now in check because of an international situation that has little to do with the dazzling era of the Kirchner family. This world no longer exists: it has been engulfed by history and the emergence of new global players.
Cristina will no longer be able to ask questions about "Pepe" Mújica, who has retired and is cultivating her organic garden. Fidel is dead and Raúl has retired. Lula is trapped and Dilma is stuck in her memories. Chávez is also dead and Evo tries to preserve power in all possible ways. Francisco no longer shines as before, Obama writes memoirs with his wife Michelle, Mahmud Ahmadineyad is already part of the story, Putin has been perpetuated in the Kremlin, Merkel ends his brilliant Chancellor career at the end of the year and Xi now supports free trade complaint of the trade wars that Trump begins.
If Cristina returns to Balcarce 50 years, in foreign policy, she will suffer from the syndrome "Goodbye Lenin". His likely foreign minister, Eduardo Valdez, should explain to CFK that Maduro is not as clever as Chavez, that Trump is not as diplomatic as Obama and that Xi is comfortable with Macri, who respects bilateral commitments and does not get bored in speeches. living room full of common places.
While Cristina paraded in front of the courts, the region was beginning to debate the flexibilization of Mercosur, the Lima Group had been created to find a political and diplomatic solution to the crisis in Venezuela, Washington has a pragmatic stance for America Latin, the right took over the palace The currency in Chile and Britain accepted a humanitarian policy to save from oblivion the Malvinas fighters who had lost their identity during the war in the South Atlantic.
Cristina can only rely on Morales, Maduro, the agony of the Cuban Revolution, López Obrador in Mexico, Erdogan in Turkey, Francisco reluctantly, Putin, Xi with his eastern patience and Iran. A handful of potential allies who will play with CFK because of the regional importance of Argentina.
If CFK preserved its binary foreign policy design, Argentina's global agenda would undergo an abrupt and complex paradigm shift. The possibility of a European Union-Mercosur agreement will be cooled, Jair Bolsonaro will be considered a minor play, the Lima group will resist the attacks of the Kirchner government to protect Maduro, Trump will in fact be named persona non grata, the pope will will go to Argentina, Putin will advance on Vaca Muerta, the Chinese will build dams in Santa Cruz and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will juggle with the $ 57 billion loaned to the Macri administration.
Cristina will hardly support Maduro and will join a diplomatic front led by Tabaré Vázquez, López Obrador and the European Union. In this direction, Argentina will claim a democratic solution to solve the humanitarian crisis by baderting that the populist regime is a Trump target to control the region and take over Venezuelan oil.
And regarding the AMIA investigation, there will also be a change of step. In the United States, Italy, and Israel, an open investigation attempts to link a possible triangulated sale of national uranium to the memorandum signed by CFK with the fundamentalist regime of Iran.
The international investigation has absolved the Italian businessman Fabio Mascialino of this illicit trafficking operation, but is still looking for evidence linking the responsibility of the chavist government, the memo with Iran and Cristina's decision to bury the AMIA attack investigation.
Julio Montes, former Venezuelan ambbadador to Bolivia and Cuba, is an essential piece of the puzzle, even though he died a few years ago. From the geopolitical point of view of CFK, the memo he signed with Mahmud Ahmadinejad does not exist. And in this context, if you come back to Balcarce 50, Information from the United States, Italy and Israel will never reach the courts of Buenos Aires.
Since 2016, the main players in the global agenda have changed. And if there is always a head of state that Cristina went through to the UN or in the Poutin or Xi of the G20, the world order is no longer what It was. There is a trade war between the United States and China, Venezuela is undergoing a serious humanitarian crisis, and Argentina has returned to the IMF to cite specific events. Goodbye Lenin does not have a happy ending.
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