Daniel Ortega’s path that Nayib Bukele seems to be following

Daniel Ortega returned to power in January 2007, failing to increase the number of votes that had led him to lose three consecutive elections before. His victory was determined by a deal with liberal leader Arnoldo Alemán, which saw him win in the first round, and by the divided participation of the liberals, his natural opponents, in the 2006 elections.

However, from there He remained in power for 14 years, preparing for his third consecutive re-election, controls all the powers of the State, the Police and the Army, and has established a family dictatorship despite internal resistance since the international community has called him. turned his back. .

Suspicions that Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele has embarked on a path similar to that of his neighbor Daniel Ortega, they were confirmed on September 3 when the Constitutional Chamber, which Bukele himself installed, authorized his immediate presidential re-election., thus passing to -elected. “.

Like Ortega in Nicaragua, “Bukele does not kill democracy in El Salvador, but he has already killed it», Says Salvadoran journalist Sergio Arauz, editor-in-chief of the digital newspaper Lighthouse. “The big difference is that Bukele is doing this route in a faster way.”

Arauz considers that Bukele is going through a different path, but he tries to get to the same point where Ortega is. This difference, he says, is given by the generational distance between one president and another. “Bukele is still very popular and is painted and sold in his forms of marketing and propaganda as someone cultured, fresh, young, millennial, with new ideas “. Instead, Ortega maintains his model by appealing to an anti-imperialist discourse, rooted in the Cold War.

In 1998, the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC) was Nicaragua’s main political force and its leader, Dr. Arnoldo Alemán Lacayo, reigned. On the electoral level, the political constitution prohibited consecutive re-election or more than twice alternately, and established that it could only be won in the first round with more than 45% of the vote.

Basically, this is the path Daniel Ortega took to build the regime he leads today:

Pact with Arnoldo Alemán

With a volume of votes not exceeding 40%, Daniel Ortega was mathematically prevented from winning in the first round, and in the second round it was practically impossible as the anti-Sandinista majority vote would unite against him. A pact of give and take with liberal leader Arnoldo Alemán puts victory within reach. Alemán and Ortega shared all the positions of the state among their members, the automatic delegation of former presidents that Alemán needed to preserve immunity was activated and Ortega managed to lower the electoral ceiling to win the first round at 35%.

In 2001, despite having reached his best percentage in the last 10 years, Ortega again lost to liberal candidate Enrique Bolaños, who obtained 56.3% of the vote. But Ortega won in 2006 with just 38.0 percent of the vote when the Liberals competed divided.

Oil agreement with Venezuela

As soon as Ortega returned to power, he had a torrent of cash that came to him from Venezuela through an oil deal with the country then ruled by Hugo Chavez. Venezuela would supply the oil Nicaragua needs, and half of the agreed price would be paid over a 25-year period with 2% interest. The deal provided Ortega, according to official data, with $ 3.654 million between 2007 and 2016. This money helped him promote populist agendas, build alliances with big business, and develop a private consortium of businesses run by his family.

Alliance with big capital

Ortega made a alliance with the business world in the form of “dialogue and consensus” which allowed him to build his regime with relative ease. The implicit agreement seemed to be: “let’s organize the economy together and leave the political management to me”. The businessmen obtained the nomination of 43 of their members in the boards of directors of state institutions and obtained a decisive participation in 124 of the 326 laws approved by the National Assembly, with a Sandinista majority, between 2008 and 2018. This alliance ended in April 2018, when Ortega decided to promote Social Security reform on his own, which became the trigger for the popular rebellion.

There is no tacit alliance between the businessmen and Bukele. Sergio Arauz sees two levels of behavior: one, that of the great majority of large, medium and small entrepreneurs, which he defines as “cautiously critical”, and that of big capital “represented in four or five people of the great fortunes of the country who, I would not say that they are in alliance, but at ease“With the diet model promoted by Bukele.

Presidential re-election

The constitutional ban on re-election represented a double lock for Ortega who could not be re-elected in the following period or in an alternate period because he had already governed twice. Failing to obtain the 56 votes necessary in parliament to tear down this constitutional wall, he looked for an expeditious means: a judicial sentence. In October 2009, the Supreme Court of Justice declared Article 147 of the Constitution, which prohibited continuous re-election, inapplicable. The decision was voted by six magistrates of the Constitutional Chamber, all Sandinistas, almost in the same way as it happened last September 3 in El Salvador.

Electoral fraud

This whole power structure was generated by electoral fraud which allowed Ortega not only to be re-elected but also to have enough MPs to make the necessary laws and legal reforms and disrupt the political party system. “The November 6 elections resulted in a decline in the democratic quality of Nicaraguan electoral processes due to the lack of transparency and neutrality with which they were administered by the Supreme Electoral Council (SSC). Throughout the process, a practically one-color CSE at all levels demonstrated little independence from the ruling party and generated unfavorable and restrictive conditions of competition for the opposition, which was sidelined. of any effective representation in the electoral administration ”, presented the final report on the elections of the European Union Election Observation Mission in November 2011.

Repression

At the same time as he forged alliances with businessmen and drafted laws adapted to their needs, Ortega strengthened the process of co-opting the army and the police and organized groups of supporters in “Shock forces” who were responsible for violently erupting opposition demonstrations. It was the carrot and stick strategy. Este sistema funcionó hasta abril de 2018 cuando, con el flujo de dinero venezolano menguado, el descontento contra el Régimen manifested itself through multitudinarias marchas that llevaron a Ortega a quedarse solo con el garrote y contain las protestas a sangre y fuego para mantenerse en the power.

Bukele reinforced the army and the police with the budget and logistics. “The demands of the police and the army are quite met,” says Arauz. “He has already announced that he is going to double the army. From 20 thousand soldiers we will increase to 40 thousand soldiers in the short term. The same goes for the police. He announced a series of improvements, working conditions, salaries, bonuses for the police. Full control of these two fundamental institutions of an authoritarian regime is ensured”.

Divorced from the business world, with no Venezuelan money and with his popularity declining, Daniel Ortega finds himself with the police and the military and full control of all the powers of the state. You can make the laws you need and you have made elections a wasteful exercise because it does not allow the participation of opponents and maintains control of the court charged with counting the votes.

“Bukele has been in power for two years, entering his third year and has already announced a new constitution. A constitutional chamber adapted to his needs has announced that he can be re-elected. It has a new currency, it drastically transforms institutions and dismantles the institutionality inherited from the signing of peace agreements.», Concludes the journalist from El Faro.

KEEP READING: