Dark diagnosis of ECLAC | Argentina said …

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates that Argentina will fall by 1.8% in 2019. The expected decline of the UN agency is 38.5% deeper than that projected by the International Monetary Fund. . "The estimate depends on the appearance of new financial tensions, in a year of uncertainty related to the presidential elections," warns the report of ECLAC. The country will therefore experience the third-largest recession in the region behind Venezuela and Nicaragua, where the agency predicts collisions of 23% and 5% respectively. "Argentina is the country with the highest level of gross public debt in the region," warns the report.

"In the first quarter of 2019, GDP has accentuated the trend of recession," says ECLAC's economic study on Latin America and the Caribbean presented Wednesday in Santiago de Chile. The magnitude of the fall has not shown any changes compared to the latest projections from the body. Contrary to the optimism aroused by the IMF's reports and the fears expressed by the overflow of the Palacio de Hacienda, ECLAC acknowledges that the implementation of the austerity and financial drowning program "will have an impact negative on public and private consumption, investments and exports of the manufacturing sector ".

This UN-dependent agency points to the deep contraction in the purchasing power of workers and retirees but expects "a slight recovery in real wages that will have a small positive effect on domestic demand". CEPAL also does not share the strength of the official disinflationary diagnosis: "The reduction of inflation for the rest of the year will depend on the fact that there are no new tensions exchange rate, "says the annual report of the organization, which highlights the" sharp decline in the use of the installed capacity of the industry. "

"The region is facing an external context characterized by more and more uncertainties and complexities: less dynamism of global economic activity and trade; greater volatility and financial fragility; questions to the multilateral system and an increase in geopolitical tensions, "said Alicia Bárcena, director of CEPAL, during the presentation of the report. Given the reduced room for maneuver to stimulate demand, the agency stresses the need to reduce tax evasion and illicit financial flows, encourage the adoption of taxes on the digital economy, environmental and environmental spending, and re-evaluate tax expenditures to align them with productive investment