Debt with the IMF: a heavy legacy

In the middle of the election campaign and within two weeks of the PASSES, It is hard to think beyond the political agenda, but it is necessary. It is enough to see what are the priorities of economic policy (essentially the pax exchange at any price) a snowball that will have to be disarmed after the elections, regardless of the screwdriver.

From "investment rain" to "reaching the bottom of the economic crisis" shows the evolution of possible goals and, like all speeches, they are less true. It is complex to consider reaching the bottom of the recession of the real economy with a rate of interest that remains above 58%.

Most of the tools currently used to contain the dollar have an expiration date, as well as many programs designed to revive (even very little) the meager consumption. Does this make the calm we live fictional? No, but if you put a limit very close since the artificial respirator will soon expire.

Since the middle of last year until now, the IMF disbursed about $ 45,000 million. Nothing more and nothing less than 80% of the deal of more than 57,000 million dollars.

The consultant Ecolatina said that "if the budgetary objectives are achieved – the fact that we deduce – the multilateral agency will bring 5.5 billion US dollars to the country before the end of the year. Consequently, almost 90% of the loan will have been transferred, so it will be time to think about repayment. "

Between 2022 and 2023, Argentina is expected to return to the IMF more than $ 46,000 million between capital and interest. This implies 5% of GDP each year and we only consider debt with the Fund. According to the consultant, if the payment schedule of the deposit is added, the amount almost doubles. Or if 1 peso out of 10 products would go towards paying the debt.

The question to ask is then how the country will allocate about 10% of its GDP to the payment of its debt. It must be added that more than 75% of the debt is in foreign currency The situation therefore depends on what happens in turn in the evolution of the exchange rate.

Ecolatina and a large number of specialists conclude that a large part of the liabilities must be refinanced Because there is no possibility of payment for our country with the current conditions.

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