Delta variant: warn that there could be a third wave at the end of the month

With the detection of the delta variant, potentially more contagious than the original virus, identified in Wuhan, and present in 96 countries, the alarm is sounding in Argentina when less than 10% of the population has received the two doses of the vaccine against the new coronavirus.

Experts believe the SARS-Cov-2 mutation found in India will be the main locally in the short term, which they believe would be later this month or early next year.

So he holds it Gabriel Battistella, Undersecretary of Primary, Ambulatory and Community Care in Buenos Aires, which warns that during this period there will be a third wave of delta-related infections that will start in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area (AMBA) and then move into the interior of the country.

“Controlling those entering the country by air is very important, but Argentina has hundreds of kilometers of land border through which the virus can enter. I don’t think it will be many weeks before there is community circulation. We assume that in late July or early August we will have a third wave. Infections will skyrocket again, but we expect less stress on the health care system from the advance in immunization. From this new threat, in the City the interdose space is reduced. We will move on to the second doses in the same order. That is to say, first of all the over 60s ”, specifies the manager.

Eduardo López, infectologist and presidential advisor during the pandemic, he also warns that, in more or less time, the delta variant will have community circulation in the country. “It is very contagious and has the ability, according to preliminary studies, to evade the immune system. This means that you must have more antibodies, so a single dose is not enough to cope with it. Even a third dose is being evaluated. The time it will take to circulate will depend on the restrictions and the progress of vaccination, ”he argues. When asked if he thinks there may be community circulation of this variant at the end of July, the specialist replies: “It all depends on the level of vaccinees with two doses. If it reaches 50% of the population, the impact may be less. For example, in a country like the United States, where the variant is already circulating, and between 46% and 50% of people who have completed the vaccination schedule, the number of cases is not increasing. The more people are vaccinated with two doses, especially with Pfizer, Moderna, Sputnik and AstraZeneca, the risk is lower. However, we are already entering July with few people with two doses, in particular the most vulnerable age group, the over 60s ”.

Friday, the Ministry of Health of the Nation confirmed two new cases of the Indian variant in travelers from overseas. One came from the United States and the other from Venezuela. In the case of the Miami passenger, the Janssen vaccine was applied on June 5 and entered Argentina with a negative PCR. The Ezeiza antigen test also ruled out infection. A week later, on arrival, another test was done and he came back positive. For this reason, the authorities stress the importance of not breaking the isolation. With these two people, there are already five cases of delta detected in Argentina.

“This variant will circulate in our country, there is no doubt, it will be in a month, a month and a half, it is not possible to know for sure. For us, being able to delay the entry of the variant by two months would be essential to complete the vaccination schedule for people who now have a dose, ”explains Jorge Geffner, head of the chair of immunology at the Faculty of Medicine of the university. de Buenos Aires (UBA) and researcher at Conicet.

Source: The Nation