Despite Nicolás Dujovne's departure, economists expect volatility to continue

Economists and badysts are waiting this week volatility persists in the market despite the change of Minister of Finance. They plan to advance the negotiation of his replacement, Hernán Lacunza, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), so that in September, he will disburse the remaining $ 54 billion of the deal.

"The margins at his disposal are very low, and if the electoral scenario is repeated, he has two months to act and can reflect in the pocket people. It's a little complicated. These are not measures that change the structure of the economy, "said economist Fausto Spotorno during his visit to TN on the appointment of the new minister.

The professional also described Lacunza as an "excellent professional", who knows "a lot about monetary policy" and is a "very complete economist".

Diego Martínez Burzaco, chief economist and director of MB Inversiones, said the city "It will focus on Lacunza's relationship with the IMF and how he can handle a waiver after the announcements made by the president (Mauricio) Macri that tend to divert the budgetary objectives of the agreement. "

In addition, he felt that he did not think that this gap "called into question the last disbursement of this year representing 5400 million US dollars for the Fund in September", but he felt that at most "there would be a warning of the IMF "." These funds are critical to the renewal of very short-term Treasury financing and this is where the market will focus. And that has country and dollar risk impact"concluded Martínez Burzaco, in dialogue with Télam.

For its part, Leonardo Svirsky, an badyst at Bull Market Brokers, predicted that in the markets "there will be a lot of uncertainty from here to October and volatility will continue. "The market will be dangerous," he ventured.

The director of research for traders, Gustavo Neffa, agreed that the environment would continue to be "very volatile". "I expect a negative reaction markets and what happened with the ministerial exchanges, "he added, and he explained that the wrong answer was due to the fact that" (Nicolás) Dujovne was the link with the IMF. and obviously all the projects of the Fund aimed at maintaining budgetary figures they have a major setback with the latest measures that represent a very high tax cost ".

"Lacunza has turned out to be a minister of the economy very clever in the province of Buenos Aires and the city sees him as a very experienced figure, Young and friend of the markets. It will have a very difficult role to play in the next two months, "said Neffa.

In addition, an badyst from one of the leading local market companies pointed out that the challenge "growing closer to Lacunza as a minister is to see what is the relationship with the IMF". "He and (Guido) Sandleris, president of the Central Bank, were part of the team that worked with the Fund, so the relationship is fluid, but the latest moves are diverting the US government." compliance with the tax directive and possibly take additional measures, "he said.

In this sense, he felt that the market "will be for the moment attentive to the evolution with the IMF". "The dollar will depend on the progress of the negotiation," he said, adding: "The only thing to do, in the very short term, is that the IMF confirm a technical visit during the last week of August and there, they sat down to negotiate the details and possibly some conditions for the disbursement of mid-September. "

Santiago López Alfaro, partner of Delphos Investment, the investment consultant who predicted a 10-point difference in favor of the Fernández-Fernández formula, said that volatility would continue: "We do not think that a recovery of the markets will start, just for traders".

"The bonds are still in a bad technical position," he said. As for the dollar, he predicted that he would continue to be sued: "The powerhouse is working well, it is raising rates and selling dollars.It must use foreign currency only to go into debt and to work." . And he felt that the most important thing is "that on September 15, the IMF approve disbursement. There is the key to what will happen. "