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07-11-2018
Unlike other bullfights financed by deposits in pesos, this time the funds came from the disarmament of Lebacs.
Crisis Exchange yes, no corrida? The Central Bank officials – the present and those of the previous administration – are anxious to clarify that the exchange rate triggered which began in mid-April n Was not accompanied, ] as in other devaluations, for a migration of deposits from pesos to dollars. Nor for a cash out of the financial system. Nor for the withdrawal of dollar deposits of safes
What the official data of seem to indicate, it is that in fact the request for dollars was paid with disarmament positions in Lebacs, mainly foreign investors who rushed to run to the currency to defend the profits that they had obtained by betting on the formula " high rate of peso + exchange rate Quiet. "
This disarmament of Lebacs is what explains the fall of US $ 12 000 million reserves of the Central Bank between April and June. The foreigners who had brought in dollars to invest in Lebacs in pesos were doing the opposite: they sold the lebacs, bought dollars and took them away. This also explains the fall in the equity of mutual funds investing in Lebacs.
The latest issues of the BCRA, dated July 4, indicate that the dollar deposits of the private sector (ie, excluding public sector dollars at any of their levels) marked this day a new record: 27.156 million dollars.
The figure represents an increase of 5.4% from the 25,747 million observed on May 29th. That day was recorded the floor of the drop in dollar deposits that had begun in mid-May, when the Central did not find the formula to stop the triggering of the dollar.
In banks they already recognize that the dollar retail sale has taken off in recent weeks, and badume that if the exchange rate remains calm this trend should not be changed.
"The retailer c buys dollars throughout the year, at a normal rate," they say in one of the main entities of the system.
The dollar took a look at 30 pesos on the white retail market – bank of financial institutions, essentially – ] on June 29. Since then, the turnstile of Longe and the rates well above 50% have stopped the exchange rate escape. Today the dollar is worth about 5% less, reflecting the calm that slowly covers the market.
With respect to the conventional term deposits in the private sector pesos, it shows at least one stagnation. The average April closed at 669 million pesos, rose to 694 million in May (in line with inflation) and closed June at the same level, which, given the expected inflation (about 4%) represents a real decline.
The Central Bank explains in the monetary report published yesterday what happened to the deposits.
"Deposits in the private sector pesos recorded an average monthly growth of 1.9% in June driven by the increase in demand deposits, although deposits futures maintained their average monthly balance, throughout the month they showed a decreasing trajectory that was reversed during the last week of June. "
" The fall is explained by the behavior of retail investments, since deposits exceed $ 1 million have remained stable, in a period characterized by greater demand for liquidity from companies to face the payment of half the annual salary "
In the foreign exchange segment, according to Clarin, private sector investments have increased In short, private deposits have not escaped the banks, despite the fact that the dollar has risen between April and June by almost 40%.
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