Difficult elections in Israel: Netanyahu is more likely to form a government – 04/09/2019

The Israeli parliamentary elections were a dark scenario. The centrist bloc of former Army Chief Benny Gantz was fighting a vote against the right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is better positioned to form a new government.

While the first polls out of the polls gave Gantz more seats than Netanyahu and his Likud party, the situation changed as the review progressed.

According to the Central Electoral Commission, with 825,205 votes cast (18.3% counted), the Likud would get 29.15% of the vote against 25.27% for Azul and Blanco.

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The figures show that both are far from the absolute majority of 61 seats, more than 120 of Parliament, they need to form a government.

Despite this, both won the victory quickly. "The Likud-led right has achieved a clear victory, I thank the citizens of Israel for their trust, and I am going to start forming a right-wing party with our natural partners tonight," Netanyahu said.

His rival has also launched similar expressions. "We have won!" The Israeli public has expressed its opinion: In these elections, there is a clear winner and a clear loser. "Bibi" (as Netanyahu is known) has promised 40 seats and has lost significantly ", said Mr. Gantz. He urged the Israeli president to "declare the winner of the elections to form the next government". "There is no other option," he said.

With the first votes counted, Gantz's Bleu et Blanc got 30% of the votes, against 24.2% of the Likud. Behind, followed the Union of Right and Labor parties with 8% each, New Right with 5%, pacifist Merez with 4% and three parties that should not exceed the required 3.25% limit: Shas, Zehut, Kulanu and Gesher.

In the absence of major differences in the proposals of the two major coalitions, the elections became a referendum on the management of Netanyahu, aged 69. His style of government is openly rejected by a large number of Israelis, especially after the series of allegations of corruption he faces, but he is also supported by another sector of the same size for the hard hand that it applies to the Palestinian question.

The averages continue to make more likely the formation of a right-wing government. The central bloc and the left bloc are estimated to have between 56 and 60 seats, but Netanyahu and the ultra-nationalist and orthodox forces that support it would add 62 seats, enough to control the Knesset (parliament) and thus form the next government.

The day was marked by the low turnout of voters and the scandal provoked by the delivery of cameras hidden by the Likud to its volunteers in majority Israeli-Arab voting centers. The Arab list said that it was to intimidate voters and Likud responded in the affirmative to avoid fraud.

Gantz, a 59-year-old former paratrooper, participated in these elections with no political experience, but with the prestige of having been commander of a special forces unit and former chief of the forces' staff. defense. The soldier claimed that he was fighting to end the years of divisions and corruption incarnated by the outgoing prime minister.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, reiterated at any time that no one was better qualified than he to guarantee the security and prosperity of the country. Both themes have always provided him with political revenues.

Netanyahu's victory seemed badured when early elections were announced last December, while they were scheduled for November 2019. The initiative was interpreted as a "Bibi" maneuver to achieve an electoral victory despite allegations of corruption.

The climate of uncertainty will only disappear in the coming days, when the final official results will define these tight elections. The truth is that we are now entering into crucial negotiations between the different formations to form a coalition government, where Netanyahu has more opportunities.

The big question is how many small parties – ultranationalists, Orthodox and Palestinian religious or leftist – manage to exceed 3.5% and enter Parliament. Although they only add three or four seats, their entry or exclusion may play a key role in shaping the coalition government.