Difficult to see the ceiling – 05/02/2019

The opening of the Chinese pork market in Argentina is a new high impact. This was understood by President Mauricio Macri, who moved to one of the country's largest pork refrigerators (Pompeya, Marcos Paz, 50 km from Buenos Aires) to make this announcement.

Some took the act as an act of campaign, imitating the caricaturesque inaugurations of quills or pelopinchos, habitual to the K era, when the absurdities worsened. Immersed in a deep political crisis, it is forgiven that the fact is inscribed in the need, from Macri, to give good news.

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Well that's it. China is in a desperate situation when it comes to supplying pork. It is the main source of animal protein, with a consumption of 50 million tons per yearfor which he sacrifices 700 million capons a year. That's half of the global demand for hogs. Thirty years ago, he did not move the needle. The United States produces 10 million tonnes and all the countries of the European Union are just over 22 million tonnes.

It should be remembered that our country produces 2 million tons of beef. C & # 39; is to say, The pig activity in China is 25 times more important that of beef in Argentina, where we already know what that means.

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In our newsletter last week and in Clarín Rural Last Saturday, we noticed the upheaval in the agricultural markets as a result of what is happening with Chinese pigs. The outbreak of African swine fever epidemics, a deleterious disease of activity, warned the alarm a year ago. The plague does not affect humans, but it decimates schools. There is no vaccine and to stop it you have to resort to sacrifice. There are no reliable figures, but the prestigious Rabobank of the Netherlands, an institution in the agri-food and animal protein sector, says that the stock of pigs in China will decrease by 30%.

This has an impact on Argentina's main export complex, that of the soy agribusiness. Soy is the main source of protein for pig feed. The growth of Chinese imports was comparable to that of its hog inventory. Since the outbreak of the health crisis, the derived demand was losing wind and not raising the head. But in return, pork prices in China soared.

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And also in the United States, where they discovered an unexpected gift: the pork did not fall as a result of a trade dispute with China. As will be remembered, the government led by Xi Jingping imposed a 25% import duty on US soybeans and totally excluded him from the market. This resulted in a price collapse in Chicago, which favored local consumers of animal protein. And now, Chinese demand for pork appears.

In this context, the opening for Argentine pork is exploited. Great triumph of the government today overcome by the crisis. The Chancellery, with Ambbadador Diego Guelar, to Agriculture, whose leader, Luis Miguel Etchevehere, has put the finishing touches to the management led by Ricardo Buryaile, Marisa Bircher and Ricardo Negri, today holder of the indispensable Senasa.

The pig is soy and corn on all fours. We are not big consumers, even though domestic demand has increased. The biggest tribulation in the sector, in the country, was the threat of entry of Brazilian pigs. We are now facing a Copernican turning point: the Chinese do not want to depend on the United StatesBrazil is an excellent supplier and fulfills its obligations, but Argentina is a supplier of enormous potential for China.

This is a great opportunity, highlighting the vision of those who come to bet on the activity without making any stories. Difficult to see the ceiling of a market that alone accounts for the average GDP of Argentina. We have huge amounts of corn and soy that can be an indispensable step in the cascade of values.. Added value, investments inside. Employment, where it is necessary. Pure profit.