Disputes within the Venezuelan opposition around …

From Caracas

The Venezuelan opposition which still remains with Juan Guaidó finally carried out the announced “popular consultation”. Voting, which began virtually on Monday, December 7 via Telegram, an app and web page, culminated in person on Saturday afternoon with the installation of voting tables in Venezuela and various countries around the world.

The number given by those who organized the consultation garnered a total of 6,466,791 votes, of which 3,209,714 are said to have been face-to-face in the country, 844,728 abroad and 2,412,354 digitally. However, the figures announced could not be verified.: there was no proof of digital voting, where many irregularities were exposed, as well as in the ballot box.

Those who organized the consultation had already announced before the result that there would be no possibility of verifying it: “all notebooks and ballots will be destroyed immediately when the transmission of the totals is completed,” said on Saturday afternoon, Emilio Graterón, member of Voluntad Popular, the party led by Leopoldo López.

The number proposed by the organizers generated disputes within the already fragmented opposition, due to the inability to verify it, as well as the oversizing of the national participation in person on Saturday.. How many people voted that day? It is difficult to know precisely, even if the images of the polling stations visited by this columnist, as well as the various reports, showed a situation far removed from Guaidó’s euphoric account.

The disputes within the opposition were not only about numbers and their political fabrication, but, fundamentally, the focal point that crosses most of the opposition spectrum: how to continue? The balance at the end of 2020 is particularly negative for all opposing factors, Those who ran for legislatures on December 6 got very little support in the votes, and those who did not participate are in conflict over leadership and strategy.: maintain the bet on an exit of force or a return on the electoral ground, in what way and at what time.

These are debates that have been made public in recent days. Henrique Capriles Radonski, for example, said in an interview with the BBC: “I have nothing personal against Guaidó, but it’s over, it’s over, melted down, closed (…) the new administration – of the States – United – must understand that this plan is exhausted and cannot give continuity to the status quo: the interim ”.

López, for his part, arrived in Colombia this week and gave a press conference with President Iván Duque, who said he would maintain recognition of the interim presidency in Venezuela. López stressed that the aim is to achieve “free, fair and verifiable” presidential and legislative elections and that at this time there is no possibility of an action of the international force – contained in the figure responsibility to protect.

The declaration on the impossibility of an operation of force in turn prompted the reaction of María Corina Machado, who maintains that the only possible outcome in Venezuela is international action. The labyrinth of the opposition has thus shown itself once again, in the midst of what is a climate of defeat in the attempt to overthrow Maduro or defeat him at the polls.

What will the new administration of the United States decide in the face of this scenario? This is one of the main questions. Although James Story – the US Ambassador to Venezuela who comes from Bogotá and recognizes Guaidó – supported the consultation, the different variables seem to indicate that it could be at the gates of a new dialogue and its consequent changes in the development of the country. conflict. The Venezuelan government has a central point in any dialogue: the lifting of the economic blockade.

Alongside these points of analysis, another central debate appears in the country: the proof, after the legislative elections and the popular consultation, that there is a high cross-sectional abstention rate, that is to say a departure of a social majority from the different political options, from politics in general terms. It is a deepening trend, the product of a set of cross variables, economic, political, temporary, which, for the moment, shows no signs of reversing.

In this framework, Chavismo maintains a majority unity, a party for territorial and national development, a social base with an organization and a strong identity component – it obtained 20.86% of the electoral lists -, the support of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces and the position of being the government. An equation that allows him to face critical moments and win elections against a fragmented and disoriented opposition cadre.

2021 will surely bring more changes in political failures, with possible economic consequences in the context of a blockaded country, where the government is desperate to attract international and domestic private capital. Stopping the economic crisis appears to be the most urgent need, to stop, for example, the process of emigration that, as we learned this Sunday, the lives of at least 11 Venezuelans have been claimed – according to a police report – who were trying to get by boat to the island of Trinidad and Tobago.