Does Cristina Kirchner really beat Macri?

Among the clbadic political badysts, the idea that the warning issued by the consultant Jaime Durán Barba about the possible defeat of Mauricio Macri against Cristina Kirchner prevails among the clbadical political badysts is that 39 a masterful gesture for scare the change with the story of the big bad wolf. And not only to change. Also what is called the red circle and a good part of society.

These thinkers are based on a thesis that Durán Barba himself wrote in one of his books. A preconception that says that to win the elections, the important thing is not how it is now, but how to reach the day of the vote. And that, even With such an unstable electorate, it is counterproductive to win six months earlier, as this may encourage the "politically correct" vote resulting in theft of the "safe winner" option.

Those who work at the Cabinet Office near Marcos Peña have additional reasoning. They argue that you should not go crazy because, on the basis of which the The president keeps a third of the votes and Cristina Fernandez also, every week and even every day, fluctuating fluctuations from one direction to the other.

However, this time, Durán Barba's message was more direct and less elaborate. He confided to the head of state, Minister Nicolás Dujovne and the president of the Central Bank, Guido Sandleris, that they do not immediately reverse the idea that Every day, all Argentineans estimate to buy less food with the same amount. Cristina will win PASO for a difference of 5 to 6 points.

The consultant also explained to them that then the calculation that fear would cause us to change the result in the first round will matter less. He told them that, on the contrary, this difference will increase financial volatility and put the economic program at riskand the imported agreement would not even be important.

It also seems that this time, Macri, instead of answering "I would love to do magic, but I lost my wand", he listened carefully and started asking all ministers of the economic region what kind of measures could be taken without affecting the budget or achieving the deficit goal.

Now they are all trying to finance heterodox measures, such as the launch of new loans, a price agreement that restrains the increase in the basic food basket and an increased administrative speed to close the unions. major unions.

Durán Barba will speak publicly only after the primary elections. They asked him to avoid more noise than with Elisa Carrió and the radicals. Even with Peronists like Emilio Monzó and Rogelio Frigerio, who, at that time, would have preferred to join the government with leaders such as Miguel Angel Pichetto, Juan Manuel Urtubey or, at the time, Sergio Mbada and even Roberto Lavagna.

Because of doubts, Macri's little table had already come back to promise the leaders they were trying to open. Let's change, that they would do it just after November, in case they win the electoral race. María Eugenia Vidal and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta support this time the idea of ​​Durán Barba: heterodox measures to not lose re-election.

This column was read in La Tarde, directed by Luis Majul on CNN radio.