Dollar, Debt and IMF: The message of Alberto Fernández's campaign on Wall Street

WASHINGTON.- There have been at least two teleconferences, one organized by the Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual and the other by XP Investments. On one side, they listened to investors and Wall Street badysts. On the other side of the line, Emmanuel Álvarez Agis presented an overview of the future presidency of

Alberto Fernandez

, with a pleasing message at the market palace, which was taken as an attempt to keep calm on hectic days.

Álvarez Agis stated that neither Fernández nor

Cristina Kirchner

they want a default and worry about, in both appeals, to sow the hope of a moderate government and strengthen the figure of Fernández, given the latent concerns about the nature of his government to the position of true power and the margin that will be his. maneuvering.

"Cristina Kirchner will not stand in the way of a reform program or centrist policies," Alvarez Agis said, according to the notes that he accepted.
THE NATION. Álvarez Agis sought to establish the idea that Cristina Kirchner was chosen by Alberto Fernández to go beyond an electoral strategy: in addition to capturing voters outside Kirchnerism, he said, he can also better manage markets and reform. The Congress

Álvarez Agis' calls were the Front of All's first contact with a large Wall Street crowd since last Sunday's primaries, which changed the country's political and economic scene and left Alberto Fernández with one foot in the air. inside the Casa Rosada. . Álvarez Agis was in New York before the elections with a speech similar to the one he's delivered these days. An investment bank badyst defines him as a "reasonable" economist who advocates "nuances" rather than changes in direction. Another stressed his "perfect English" and his message "beautifully designed for the market". There are those who doubt their weight as a reference.

"As long as there will be no economic equipment, there will be nothing left," said a source from a fund.

Álvarez Agis, who was number two in

Axel Kicillof

At the Ministry of Economy, he provided definitions on the crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), debt and monetary policy, and offered a brushstroke to Alberto's possible economic policy. Fernández. "He does not want a fault," he said.

The economist said the renegotiation with the IMF should include "an effort" in structural reforms. Fernandez is willing, he said, to discuss a pension reform and a reform of the workforce, although less aggressive than that led, for example, by Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. Alejandro Werner, director of the Western Hemisphere of the Fund, who visited Fernandez at the end of June, had already declared that he was "convinced" by the political arena to push ahead with structural reforms.

Fernández wants "micro" labor reforms focused on specific markets such as software, lithium, power generation or oil and gas, but not a "macro-level labor reform".

The debacle of the peso and bonds encouraged speculation about debt restructuring. "In the investor community, there is a lot of discussion about when and how the restructuring is done, more than if it were restructured," said another badyst.

For Álvarez Agis, the biggest challenge is the debt to the Fund. The first step is to see how much you want and how much you are ready to refinance the agency and then define the future financing requirements. And the main problem, he noted, is more immediate: the Treasury is struggling to refinance short-term bonds, Treasury bills or Letes, because of market panic. If the Fund retains the next round for about $ 5,400 million, he warned, the economy could collapse.

Álvarez Agis spoke of a possible increase in withholding taxes in order to improve cash receipts and left the door open for the establishment of capital controls. He backed the monetary policy of Guido Sandleris at the head of the Central Bank, which he also declared this week in Buenos Aires, and pleaded for a stabilization of the exchange rate.

According to the economist, unlike Macri, Alberto Fernández will seek to revive growth by putting more emphasis on demand than on supply. Another definition: Fernández will need Vaca Muerta and will try to give investors predictability. It will examine the trade agreement sealed between the European Union and Mercosur, but will not break it. And he gave a hint on its evolution in the months to come: it says nothing that scares markets or makes it lose votes.