Dollar: the IMF faces a new mission and the government demands more freedom

The negotiations do not stop: every day, officials of the government of Mauricio Macri discuss with the International Monetary Fund the way to readjust the program approved last year for Argentina.. In particular: they want to have more discretion in the management of the market. More consideration of the high volatility of recent days and the ghost of what could happen in the coming months, in the context of presidential elections.

In this context, as he could know The chroniclerIMF technicians are already preparing – once again – their suitcases to come to Buenos Aires: Mid-May, the team led by the Italian Roberto Cardarelli will be in the country. audit the evolution of the promised variables and, finally, engage in face-to-face discussions with the Central Bank's headlines, Guido Sandlerisand with the Ministry of Finance, Nicolás Dujovne.

"We talk all the time about the IMF, in fact, the decision to leave the ceiling set at 51.45 dollars had already been repeated a million times," said a government source. "It's a very volatile program, you know. Now, we evaluate daily what can be admitted and the balance between discretion and action, "he added.

Fear, at some point, is summarized as to the extent to which an intervention can work and the fact that the market does not overreact to a particular measure. In fact, the government gave an example of what would happen if the decision was to intervene when the dollar was trading at over 2% a day. "The second day, the market would do tests. This is not easy"This fear is also contagious in the ability to buy back government bonds.

In this regard, within the treasury, they share the market view that buying bonds at current prices would be a good option, but the fact is that you have to have money to do that. "It's an awesome deal, there is a consensus about it, but money is a scarce resource"said the government on this aspect.

Even in this case, the official corridors also fear that the market can not, in any case, be considered insufficient to release a certain amount of funds for the repurchase of securities.

Last week, Anses had bought short-term securities and, on the market, the rumor is growing about the possibility that Banco Nacion will also do its part. The intention is to reverse the bad mood and stop the rise of country risk. "The bank does not have too much cash to do it, the resources are optimized, they are all placed"they badured.

Although the Monetary Fund has repeatedly emphasized the fact that Argentine officials have fully prepared the confirmation program agreed with Argentina, the limits are clear: beyond the ideological stance on the free exchange rate, the dollars that the agency ready to stop a race, which disappear and end up in the country's mattresses, are what they do not want. That is why it is the refusal to intervene on the foreign exchange market.

Although there are still a few days left for the arrival of the new IMF mission in mid-May, conversations with the IMF take place daily. The most profound changes, such as the decision to sell the 9600 million US dollars until the end of the year with 60 million US dollars a day, are discussed but the decision ends up being purely policy: that is to say between the director general of the organization, Christine Lagarde, with Dujovne and Sandleris.