dollar today climbed to $ 46.68 and the country risk approaching 900

The foreign exchange market began the week before the SAP, convulsed by the resumption of the US trade war. and China, this time as a result of Beijin's decision to devalue the yuan and raise its price above $ 7.

The reaction on the markets was immediate and the local case is no exception: the wholesale dollar rose 1.88% to settle at $ 45.49 on the sale. This download is in line with what is happening with other emerging currencies. For example, in Mexico, the dollar climbed 1.5%, Brazil and Chile 1.3% and Colombia 1.4%.

For Sabrina Corujo, director of Portfolio Personal Inversiones, "the rise of the dollar is accelerating, bending to the external trend".

According to market badyst Agustín Cramo, "faced with this situation on the market, it is insisting that the Central Bank can even intervene on the" spot "to cushion the rise."

For his part, Matías Roig, director of Portfolio Personal Inversiones, said that "the upward trend of the dollar was not local, but regional, because, with the exception of the Turkish lira, helped by its central bank, the main emerging currencies and LATAM fell. "

"The good news is that the BCRA has the means to contain what it sees as disruptive movements, although it is most likely supported by the general movement of currencies," Roig added.

Regarding what the monetary authority can do in this situation, the two paths to follow could be, according to Roig: "the futures market – where it is said that she still bought $ 2 billion – and the spot market – with perhaps some limitations, but virtually without intervention

According to him, "just like last week, he will certainly continue to play" stronger "in the futures market and not for the moment, but we do not rule out the complicated scenario. a thing that, coupled with the intervention of the futures market that I used last week, can further raise the interest rate (absorbing heavy pesos through Leliq) .Another alternative that we think we can use today. "

This increase was shifted to the retail segment because, according to the usual survey, it was Professional, The average price resulting from the slates of the main banking entities that operate in the city advance of 46,50 dollars, according to the following detail:

– Galicia: $ 46.90

– Nation: $ 46.50

– ICBC: $ 47

– BBVA: $ 46.74

– Supervised: $ 46.60

– Santander: $ 46.80

Meanwhile, in the marginal market, the price of blue is $ 46.50 per unit.

In the Rofex futures market, contracts traded at the end of December advance to $ 55.50 per lot.

In the case of Argentine bonds, the spread of external pessimism also has an impact on the valuation of Argentine sovereign bonds and on the resulting expansion of country risk, which is close to 870 points, with an advance of 4.5%. It reaches the highest level since June 26th.

Bad weather is also reflected in the decline in ADR and shares of Argentine companies operating on Wall Street, while Central Puerto fell 5.4%, Supervielle 4.7% and Telecom 4.2%.

An increasingly dark world scenario

What is happening on the local currency market hardly reflects what is happening globally in the midst of the American trade war. and China

It should be recalled that last week, Donald Trump's decision to increase tariffs on imports of Chinese products escalated further, the reaction of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) was quick and lowered. this Monday a point and a half of the commercial strip of currencies rises to 6.9225 USD, its lowest level since December 2018, which implies the depreciation of the yuan on the markets.

Last Thursday, Mr Trump announced that he would impose 10% tariff on Chinese goods worth $ 300 billion as of September 1st. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reacted by announcing "retaliatory measures", without specifying their nature.

One of the main complaints of the US government in the context of the trade dispute is the claim that Beijing manipulated its currency to prevent it from over-appreciating and, as a result, its exports would lose competitiveness. .

Beijin also ordered Chinese companies to no longer buy agricultural products in the United States, as Trump had promised at the last G20 summit.

With these decisions, Beijin responds doubly and with the utmost vigor to the United States, which has focused its criticism on the Asian country on its policy of keeping the currency artificially low to boost its exports.

From the wheel, Exchange rates of the Chinese yuan against the dollar broke the psychological barrier of 7 to 1 Monday, reaching 7.0258 yuan according to the "onshore" rate – the one operating on local markets, which represents the highest quota since April of 2008.

In addition to the Chinese currency, the Korean won (-0.7%) and the Australian dollar (-0.8%) also fell. On the contrary, the yen, which is generally perceived as a safe haven in the face of such unforeseen events, has strengthened more than the dollar (+ 0.6%), says the Financial Times.

Those that fell are all Asian stock markets and clearly: Japan's Topix benchmark dropped by 1.8% and South Korea's Kospi by 2.6%. They also lowered the Hong Kong Hang Seng (-2.8%) and the Shanghai CSI 300 (-1.9%).

As for the European stock markets, the Stoxx 600 index lost 1.59% after falling 2.5% on Friday, its worst level in two months. The British stock market led the fall with losses of 1.74%, followed by France (-1.73%) and Germany (-1.28%)

The contagion effect also touched the main indices of the New York Stock Exchange, which opened on Monday with heavy losses. The industrial Dow Jones fell by 1.9%, while the index of Nasdaq technology companies, a sector strongly affected by the trade war between Beijing and Washington, lost 2.63%. On the other hand, the S & P500; fell by 2.01% and Russell 2000 by 2.26%.

Overall, the MSCI Global Index, which measures paper in 47 countries, fell 0.7% to 2% since Friday.

A spokesman for the People's Bank of China (CPB, central) said on the agency's website that the depreciation of the yuan was given by "unilateral measures and trade protectionism", as well as by "l & rsquo; Imposition of tariff increases to China ", It is clearly referred to the last turning point of the trade war that Beijing and Washington have been maintaining since March 2018.

A weaker yuan means that Chinese dollar denominated products are cheaper, which would help limit the negative impact of new US tariffs on their competitiveness.

However, the BPC said today that the fluctuations of the yuan were adjusted to the market, but that the national currency "remains stable and strong", while ensuring that it has "the experience, the confidence and the ability "to maintain stability in a longer period. "appropriate level" – although it did not indicate what this level was – in exchange rate. In addition, the central bank announced a "helping hand" against short-term speculation.

The escalation of the commercial battle between the two giants of the global economy has been noted with force in Asian currency and stock markets, where falls have been very significant.

The growing conflict climate is forcing investors to take refuge in other badets such as the Japanese yen, US bonds or gold, even Bitcoins have joined this long list.

In the case of 10-year US Treasury bonds, considered the safest financial badet in the world, in the face of the flood of purchases, its price increases and, consequently, its profitability drops to 1,784%, the lowest rate since 4 November 2016

While gold shows a progression to the highest levels of 2013, with an increase close to 1.5% to 1460 dollars the ounce. With this rise, since the beginning of the year, the advance has already reached 13% with all in favor of the rally. The reasons are diverse and include the geopolitical uncertainties generated by the "Brexit", the new monetary roadmaps of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve and the trade war that is intensifying this week.

Beyond these movements that can be considered logical, the important thing in this case is that Bitcoin is also considered as a safe haven, its price showing an increase of more than 7%.

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