Donald Trump's Commercial War

In this controversial case, one of Trump's first acts was to order his country to raise tariffs by 25% on steel imports and an additional 10% on imports. aluminum imports from Europe, Canada and Mexico, to then establish new tariffs of $ 200 billion for imports from China, as part of a broader policy dubbed "America First", in which the genuine claims of sectors of the North American economy are mixed. they have been left behind in recent years with confused criteria of "national security". But beyond Trump's controversial style, the president seems determined to move the shelves of world trade, and the evidence is his announcement to go ahead with more levies against states allied nations. States in Europe who, in turn, They foresaw that they would not sit idly by the protectionist attacks of the US administration, so that they do not exclude retaliation for the import of American products such as corn, blueberries, jeans and high-end motorcycles.

The free market ensures that the best cure for Trump's protectionism is to apply new doses of increased liberalization and, in this sense, they stress as positive the agreement between the European Union and Japan which, in addition to including a large free trade area, it also incorporates data exchange. For some experts, this commitment by Europe to greater openness to Japan will affect the US export interests and will benefit countries that are not in the same position. Do not impose obstacles. In other words, the trade war unleashed by Trump will leave winners and losers, and it is there that we can ask ourselves how this conflict will impact the countries of Latin America. In theory, the new US tariff policy could benefit a few sectors in Argentina and Brazil, especially those that are exporters of raw materials. In fact, China has increased tariffs by 25 percentage points on US soybeans, in response to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on products originating from the Asian giant. As China is a major consumer of soybeans, it is expected that oilseed producers in Brazil and Argentina will benefit from this new scenario. But all do not optimistically see the scenario that is configured with this trade war between world powers and, on this point, quote a recent document of the Central Bank of France where he is warned that if the international commercial conflict persists and progresses with the As far as tariffs are concerned, the gross international product could fall as high as 3%, which could lead to a drop in productivity, an increase in the cost of capital and a decrease in investments. If this forecast were respected, Argentina – which is in a particularly vulnerable situation and highly dependent on dollar income – could pay a very high cost because, as said, it is not in the best conditions for do it. facing the blows of the strong commercial tensions which dominate the world stage today. On the other hand, according to recent estimates by the International Monetary Fund, the effects of North American protectionist policies and the retaliation it has triggered in Europe and China could reduce world growth by 2020 to half a point. , the North American economy being one of the most affected. . According to the IMF study, in the worst of four scenarios, the United States would only drop 0.8% in the first year. In the case of Argentina, the strong winds that begin to blow at this global juncture could further complicate the country's battered economy, especially if predictions that prevent the rise in inflation in the states United States could lead to the Reserve are satisfied. Federal to raise interest rates again, with all that means for an economy like Argentina that is so vulnerable to the release of dollars.