Doubts of businessmen and analysts on the impact of the crisis

With nuances, they emphasized that it remains to be seen how the recent financial turbulence will affect the real economy; official optimism

CÓRDOBA.- In a business environment marked by uncertainty and mistrust towards forecasts that indicate that the economy could begin to recover during the course of last months of the year, the 41st anniversary of the Mediterranean Foundation. Economists were, in general, more optimistic than businessmen

. One common point among specialists was to admit that the impact of the financial and financial crisis on the real economy is not yet clear. Ricardo Arriazu, by case, pointed out that the year can end with a growth of 0.2% or a decrease of 3%, because we can not measure how much mistrust in economic decisions will weigh.

He proposed that in crisis the current Argentina is still adjusted by demand and must be made by supply and with an increase in exports; it's the only way – to his understanding – to overcome the problems. He stressed that the reduction of the budget deficit expected for this year "can be achieved and overcome", but in 2019 it will be "harder because the government will have few instruments."

"The main tool is to transfer expenses that correspond to the provinces"

The exhibition of Juan Llach on the tax burden was decisive: no country in the world announces a decline as long and relative as Argentina, no one has 73 years of "chronic inflation", and Argentina is the only binary economy in the world.

"It's n & # 39; There is no procedural manual on how to manage, in a binary economy, the legacy received by this government. % of GDP of public spending, 37% of the tax burden including inflation and 7% of the deficit. "He argued that the explanation that the Argentine investment rate is d & # 39; about 15% of GDP (there are only 20 countries below) is the high tax burden.

Llach pointed out that 10.45% of GDP ($ 45,000 million) are tax distortions and that the halving of 40% in tax evasion (VAT, gross income and earnings) would eliminate all distortionary charges in one fell swoop.

He proposed to levy deductions from the benefits; accelerate tax reform, which he says is "on track", and "encourage to discuss a profit tax that is a single income tax."

Marcelo Capello agreed that a state that spends "a lot and badly" creates a burden on the private sector and hampers investment.

While the public – which was on this occasion complete – expected projections on exchange rates and inflation, Jorge Vasconcelos warned that the exchange rate creating God to humiliate the economists.

Fiat President Cristiano Rattazzi has ratified his defense of the high dollar, while acknowledging that the factory has "profited and earned more money by importing a dollar as a gift.

Vasconcelos He said that the first recipe to be developed is to level the development of the regions; Promoting regional integration and deregulation, and badyzing special regimes for border economies

"China, de facto, is solving a discussion," said Vasconcelos, "We need to invest in niches out of the scary reach. "and stressed that in the medium and long term, Argentina has little room for maneuver in the selection of economic policy instruments:" By 2020, a new stock would have dramatic consequences on the exchange rate and inflation. "[19659009] The Minister of Production, Dante Sica, admitted that" permanent economic instability "undermines business decisions." We recalculate the program , but we do not leave it aside, we are in the last meters of the crisis without making bullshit. "