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In May for the second consecutive month in the year, the monthly estimator of economic activity that relieves the National Institute of Statistics and Census has fall. This time, the decrease was 5.8% compared to the same month of 2017, due to the strong impact of the drought in the agricultural sector. Although he also weighed heavily, the decline of the industry and the devaluation.
The official indicator of economic activity, in its seasonally adjusted, is contracted by 1.4% from April this year. Meanwhile, the accumulated of the year compared to the same period of the previous year, recorded a rise of 0.6%.
As in April, the answer back largely answered to "an exogenous shock", according to consultancy Ecolatina : the impact of drought on agricultural production. "However, the sharp contraction observed in May is also due to the decline in key sectors such as industrial production, which fell by 1.3% year-on-year (after twelve consecutive months of expansion), the Transportation and Communications% Annual and the supply of electricity, gas and water which decreased by 1.4%. "
According to the figures of the Indec, l & # 39; Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry, was the branch of economic activity that had the greatest impact on the annual contraction. from the emae in May. This sector, which has a high impact on the conformation of the index (5.76%), has dropped by 35%.
The other branches that contributed to the decline in the indicator were "net taxes on subsidies" and "transportation and communications" (-4.9%).
On the other hand, other sectors had a positive impact. In this sense, the increase in "financial intermediation" (10.8% year-on-year), real estate, commercial and rental activities and construction was very sensitive.
According to Melisa Sala, of LCG, the fall of the economy, in May, "is much larger than expected and agrees that" in addition to the drought factor, l & # 39; initially contractionary effect of the devaluation begins to be reflected. "
For LCG, contrary to optimistic forecasts of the government, the projection for 2018 is of a (minimum) decline of 0.8% over one year." The correction of the exchange rate delay, we think that still partial , will have systemic advantages because of macroeconomic robustness in the medium and long term Term And, in short, economic activity will undoubtedly suffer, "he predicted.
In the same line, Ecolatina badures that" GDP will not grow in 2018 falling below the range of expansion of the activity mentioned in the letter of intent with the IMF (0.4% to 1, 4%). "
On the other hand, for the government only one [mini-récession] is crossed With regard to the economic fall of May, the Secretary for Economic Policy, Guido Sandleris said Tuesday that "agriculture explains everything, although, also adds, the financial storm: the devaluation The third factor, according to the official, is the truck strike in Brazil that has dropped the Brazilian economy of 3%. "There is political and economic uncertainty and this has a direct impact on the economy in Argentina."
"We were expecting a weak second-quarter terms of activity." is not a surprise to see these figures.Because of the drought we knew that it was going to be weak, it's a perfect storm, "insisted Sandleris with the presidential metaphor
" Beyond the punctual data of May that are very bad, according to Pablo Goldin Macroview, warns that "this recession that begins in this quarter may be stronger than the previous ones (those of 2014 and 2016)" Although these recessions had the same origin in relation to the current situation (the devaluation, the increase in the interest rate, the credit brake, etc.), this time adds the effect of the drought, who was very strong, with whom, "we could have data from Negative nukes maybe until the summer, "he said.
A recent report from the French Bank (BBVA Research), noted that, until now, "it has been possible to avoid a disorderly adjustment of the level of activity, but in the coming months we will see a deterioration in the economy and employment, with an acceleration of inflation that could have repercussions on social conflicts. "
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