Dujovne's wish: that Indec inflation gives less than 4% tomorrow

After accelerating prices in the first quarter of the year, the government expects April inflation to be lower than expected by the market and become a hinge. reflecting the slowdown in prices so many times officially announced.

"Will we have an index below 4% tomorrow (when the official April Indec data will be released)?"
THE NATION to the Minister of Finance,

Nicolás Dujovne

, during a meeting with the media. "Hope we will wait until tomorrow, but hope that it helps the economy and the Argentines," said the minister in charge of the coordination of the economic team.

Dujovne was cautious about the resurgence of the American commercial struggle. and China, which could affect Argentina's main export product: soybeans. The head of the Treasury said that, to avoid external shocks, the country should deepen the path drawn with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which implies an improvement of the public accounts and the maintenance of a floating exchange rate. to absorb the impacts. in foreign currency and on the financial markets.

The latest Market Expectations Survey (MER) prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA) from private sector information estimated the inflation rate at 4% for April. However, at Casa Rosada, they are convinced that the number Indec can be less than one-tenth. Such an indicator would be celebrated by the markets, despite the high level, as it would begin to show that monetary and fiscal policy was beginning to affect free prices.

The latest data on inflation showed an acceleration, reaching dizziness by 4.7% in March. In the first quarter, the price increase reached 11.8%. In April, they will affect the increase in the consumption of gasoline and fuels. It will also be necessary to see whether the exchange rate jump has reached monthly prices, especially in food products, which have already increased by 64% in the last twelve months (mainly milk, meat and bakery products). ).

Dujovne said that, given the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China, which threatens Argentina by hitting the price of soybeans, it is necessary to strengthen the course.

"We need to continue our agenda of increasing integration with the world, strengthening our financial position and becoming a less volatile economy.The stronger and more credible our financial position, the less we will be affected by currency fluctuations. international markets and financial markets, which means we need to deepen what we have done so far, "Dujovne said.

"If the demand for soybeans decreases, we can not take action to revitalize this demand," said the Minister of Coordination in charge of relations with the IMF. "We must work to make the impacts generated by the international economy more easily absorbed by the local economy, and in this sense, the flexible exchange rate is the main buffer, in addition to very significant improvement in public accounts, "the minister pointed out.

According to published today
THE NATIONfor the US-China tariff trade war, which has been going on for more than a year, and among other products, soybeans have suffered a sharp drop in prices,
Argentina would have in 2019 an income reduction of 1,000 to 3,000 million US dollars for this grain.