Elections in Brazil: Bolsonaro is isolated, the center-right and the new left reappear

“Will you leave me? May I know who you voted for? “this reporter asked a man from São Paulo who had just left a school, where people voted in a wealthy neighborhood in São Paulo.” Look, I’ll be honest: I voted white for the mayor and what I did was elect the councilors. A cross question was imposed: “Are you disappointed with these elections? And the answer was precise: “None of them represents me”.

In these elections, the abstention was on an unusual scale: 29.3% of registered voters missed the democratic appointment. In Brazil, the mayor and members of municipal chambers are elected every four years; but these are elections that take place in the middle of the presidential term. In the calculations of the experts, if the abstentions are added to the blank and null votes, almost half of the electorate: 45.2%, evaded the vote in the first round.

The elections this Sunday reveal three results, with strong repercussions in the development of political processes until 2022, when the elections must take place to choose the president, governors and parliamentarians. The first effect is the end of the anti-political discourse, of the far right, which led in 2018 to the proclamation of Jair Bolsonaro as head of the Planalto palace. The second impact is the awakening of the two traditional Brazilian parties: the PSDB, founded by former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso; and the Workers’ Party, of former President Lula da Silva, who ruled the country for 13 years. The third mark he left this Sunday it is the germination of a left “sub-40” which moves away from certain old practices of the PT; manifests for democracy and, at the same time, formulates solutions for the most neglected social sectors.

In the calculations of the experts, if the abstentions are added to the blank and null votes, almost half of the electorate: 45.2%, evaded the vote in the first round.

A question arises almost naturally: does the defeat of the candidates supported by Bolsonaro, in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, have to do with the changing trends in the world? The failure of the head of state has exceeded his bets in the capitals of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. According to calculations, more than half of the candidates supported by him or by his children lost the elections. The numbers are clear: of the 45 advisers he officially supported in 27 cities, only 10 were victorious and the rest were frustrated.

Of course, in the image and likeness of his idol, President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro has sought to impose the electoral setback on his mistrust of the vote count. “If there is no reliable form of examination, doubts will remain. We have to listen to the people. It’s not me saying it, it’s the people ”. Not that the declining phenomenon of Bolsonarism suggests an end to the right. On the contrary, what is currently observed in the most diverse regions of Brazil is the resurgence of a more civilized law, to use the words of Brazilian political scientists like José Moisés, of the University of São Paulo (USP). In an interview, the professor indicated the role played by the pandemic on this occasion. “It has led citizens to perceive that they need the state and politics.” According to him, the candidates who remained under the protection of Bolsonaro “have undergone the results of a negative evaluation, in the large capitals, on the conduct of the pandemic. But they also questioned the position (of the president) in relation to democratic institutions ”.

Of course, in the image and likeness of his idol, President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro sought to impose the electoral setback on his mistrust in the vote count.

One of the parties that came out with bruises from this election was the PT. He won fewer victories than in 2016. However, he will have to participate in second rounds in several capitals and large cities. One of them is Recife, where the applicant Marilia Arraes has a chance to rise with the quartermaster in two weeks. The PSDB has also lost space at the national level: luck has been unfavorable to it in 273 town halls it dominated until the day before yesterday. It is true that the re-election of Bruno Covas, current mayor of São Paulo, is almost assured in the second shift. Of course, he will have to face the young Guilherme Boulos, one of the big revelations of the group of under 40, with Manuela D´Avila of Porto Alegre and Marilia Arraes of Pernambuco. It is claimed that the PT made a mistake, such as competing in the capital of São Paulo with an “old-fashioned” politician: Gilmar Tatto. Even Lula failed to convince him to drop out of the race, in which he only got 9% of the vote.

For analysts like Thomas Traumann of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, “the new generation of left-wing politicians have largely overcome the resentments of old politicians.” In addition, it has been shown that the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL), a split from the PT, takes the lead as an option for the “outdated hegemony” that Lula’s party still retains.