Elections in Germany: exit polls advance a tie between Merkel’s conservatives and her rival, the SPD

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and center-left Social Democrats appear tied in Sunday’s vote to decide on his successor, according to exit polls, in one of the most unpredictable elections in decades in Europe’s largest economy.

Polls released by public television after the polls closed at 6:00 p.m. (4:00 p.m. GMT) placed Merkel’s Christian Democrats and her candidate, Armin Laschet, with around 24-25% of the vote, almost tied with the social- Democrats, who leads Olaf Scholz as candidate, with 25-26%.

Given the high proportion of electors who sent in their ballot, the final results could still hold some surprises overnight.

Sunday’s elections marks the end of Merkel’s 16 years in powerThey are also pushing Germany, synonymous with stability, into a new period of political uncertainty.

If there is nothing separating the two main parties, the CDU-CSU and the SPD could try to form themselves separately in a power struggle, a long process which could leave Germany on the international stage for a while. For the German Social Democratic Party, Scholz has “a clear mandate to govern”, while Merkel’s CDU secretary already speaks of “bitter losses”.

Two men are vying for Merkel’s post: Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, 63, of the SPD, and Laschet, 60, of the CDU-CSU.

Behind the two big parties would be Los Verdes, who would get 15% of the vote, while the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) would get 11% support. Behind are the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD, 11%) and La Izquierda (5%).

These figures assume a major improvement for the SPD and its candidate, Olaf Scholz, compared to 2017, when he got 20.5% support, although that was a far cry from the clear victory they expected to be able to comfortably form a government. On the contrary, the CDU / CSU alliance is far from the 32.9% support of 2017 in the first elections without Angela Merkel as a candidate for 16 years.

In a complex vote, the Germans elected the deputies who will make up the Bundestag, representatives who will then be responsible for forming a government coalition. Voters have two check boxes on their ballot. They first voted in their constituency for a candidate for the Bundestag, that is to say a legislator. Whoever wins will have a seat in Parliament.

On the other hand, and because of the country’s electoral system, they voted for a second option, in this case not direct but proportional, a list of representatives of a political party. A counterweight system, very balanced and which tries not to generate majorities, allocates the seats according to the percentages reached by each formation.

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