Elections in Israel: Netanyahu wants to continue to expand, but journalist and former military leader challenge him

In a country that is home to a millennial people who, in the biblical era, already had leaders such as David or Solomon, many do not think it's crazy to talk about "King bibi", one of the nicknames that the Prime Minister has earned Benjamin Netanyahu, who will participate on Tuesday in the elections that can leave him – again, an almost contemporary tradition in Israel – at the head of the government of Jerusalem.

Of course, this time, Bibi, 69, was planted two real "princes"Israeli policy that wants to expel him from power, in which case he will leave with the honor of being the prime minister who has spent the most time in power, more than the legendary David Ben Gurion, but also with the threat on his head of a possible process of corruption.

The "princes" are Yair Lapid, journalist and former finance minister, pintón, 55, with a past of renowned TV presenter and a present of the leader of the centrist party Yesh Atid (There is a future), and Benny Gantz, a "hard"59 years old, former Chief of Staff of the Israeli armed forces, strong in defense and in front of the party Hosen LeIsrael (Resilience for Israel).

Lapid, with his experience on the economic front, and Gantz, former commander of an elite paratroop force and extensive combat experience, formed just a few months ago, last February, the coalition Kajol Lavan, Blue and white, and have more charisma to face Netanyahu that, for example, the Labor Party Yitzhak Herzog, which tried in 2015 to prevent Bibi from reaching this fourth term as Prime Minister.

In any case, after all, the chances of the candidates will be subject to the mathematics of the Israeli electoral system, which is parliamentary and for which the candidates are elected. Knesset, the national congress of 120 seats.

In recent days, surveys have shown an alternative growth in Blue and white and the Likud, the center-right party of Netanyahu, and one can expect that, as usual, the next government is formed by the one who is able to form a coalition with sufficient seats to support the executive power, with at least sixty-one of the 120 seats.

Netanyahu benefits from the advantage because he enjoys the proven support of several right-wing parties and orthodox religious groups. Kajol Lavan, for his part, could add the support of the Labor Party and the left Meretz as long as it exceeds the soil of 3.25% of the national vote to enter the Knesset.

They are on forty parties that ran in the elections on Tuesday, but it is estimated that only between ten and fourteen they will reach this necessary level to be able to sit in parliament.

The latest polls show that the Netanyahu party holds 31 seats against 30 members of the Lapid and Gantz alliance, the Labor Party at ten, the Meretz with six and also with six the new formation. Zehut, former Likud and now libertarian Moshe Feiglin. The orthodox religious parties would remain in the twenty pews and HaYamin HaJadash or New Right, often controversial former ministers Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, along with six others.

As in general at the Israeli right he is not bound by love but by fear of the possibility of a left-wing government, your chances of joining are always good, while in the opposite way, it is usually more complicated.

In particular, it is not possible to predict what it will do with its seven possible seats, according to polls, communist and Arab fusion Hadash-Ta & # 39; s or with its four potential seats the Arab Alliance – far left Ra & # 39; am and Balad.

It is because of all these stories that the arrows of the current Israeli political scenario essentially suggest two possibilities: another center-right government under Netanyahu or a new center-left center administration led by Gantz and Lapid.

In addition, considering that Netanyahu is an accomplished pragmatist, some think that the Prime Minister may want to get rid of the unpopular weight of religious parties and seek to form a coalition with Blue and White, even if it will remain to be seen if Gantz and Lapid would agree. to join a politician quite "spent" and marked by accusations of corruption like Bibi.

So, for many here, in these elections, it is a question of choosing between a very moderate "change" or of staying with "the bad guys before the good ones to know".

Israeli voters will examine Tuesday two almost exclusive issues: the economy and national security. The question of peace with the Palestinians is hardly a whisper that interests the left who dreams of negotiations and the extreme right that favors the creation of settlements in the occupied territories and will not shed tears for the displacement of neighbors Arab.

"To have a chance to win the elections in Israel, a candidate must be considered a person".firm hands in the field of securityand in the last decade, Netanyahu has had no serious competition on this front, "he said. Infobae Professor Jonathan Rynhold.

Bibi, continued Rynhold, vice president of the Department of Political Studies of Bar-Ilan University, "is still considered by many Israelis as the most apt to be prime minister, the security situation is relatively calm, Israel has good relations with the United States. Relations with Arab Gulf countries are improving and the economy is doing well. "

Along with this, "very few Israelis think that there is a serious possibility of progress with the Palestinians, and even half of those who define themselves as leftists agree with this prospect, which obviously helps the right, "he added. badyst

As for national security, right-wing voters say it out loud, and many on the left admit it in a low voice: Netanyahu is enough intimidateand a little more, to succeed in a quarrelsome neighborhood as is the Middle East.

The conflict with the Palestinians has been limited for a long time low intensity confrontation, which has periodic eruptions of knife attacks and rocket fire but is far from brutal terrorist attacks with explosives and suicide bombers from the past. Iran, meanwhile, seems satisfied and Hezbollah, in the north, seems comfortable in its role of permanent threat.

In any case, clarifies Rynhold, Blue and white with Gantz and two other respected former heads of state who are part of the alliance, Moshe Yaalon and Gabi Ashkenazi ", represent a credible alternative"for the national security front.

"That explains why Azul y Blanco is doing better in polls than the center and the left in the 2015 elections. They seem to have managed to capture some votes from the right-wing religious bloc," he added.

In badyzing these polls, Rynhold said that anyway, Gantz and Lapid "are going to need at least three to five more seats" that projections do not attribute to them, "something that seems unlikely".

With the issue of peace with the Palestinians in the freezer and a technical link that would favor Netanyahu on the national security front, the other decisive concerns of Israeli voters become economic and political / ideological concerns.

Speaking of pockets and bank accounts, "the situation is complex, but it could be explained as follows: Israeli macroeconomics works well and microeconomics is a little less excellent", describes the columnist Adrian Filut, of the calcalist economic newspaper, one of the country's leading." If you look at inflation for example, the gross product, the trade balance, the balance of payments, the unemployment rate, Israel is among the first countries in the world – Filut pointed out during a conversation with Infobae– On the macro front, Israel flies, and it is not now something, because for 10 years, it records impressive numbers.
According to the reporter, this is not "a sporadic or conjunctural event, it is a long-term trend".

Indeed, with the conflict with the muted Palestinians and the wars of the distant heroic years in the past, the new generations of Israelis are used to living proudly in the Start Up Nation, Global giants like Intel or Nvidia are acquiring hundreds of millions of dollars from emerging technology companies week after week.

In recent decades, Israel's difficult economy has been managed from the bunker of central bankrelatively independent of political turmoil. The country is constantly at the top of the economic rankings and has military technology and high technology sectors that export billions of dollars each year.

But at the same time, the The economic inequality index of Israel is higher average of other countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In addition, its indicators of bureaucratic efficiency and business climate are lower than those of most other countries in this club.

For the left-wing parties and the trade unions, these problems must be solved with a deepening of progressive social laws, but many badysts believe that the Israeli economy is already too sophisticated and must evolve with structural reforms.

Filcal, from Calcalist, confirms this list of pending accounts. "If you look at the index of inequality, the poverty index, the cost of the family basket, the power of purchase, the prices of the properties … There, the figures become a a little more gray, there we are wrong, "he admits.

According to the reporter, in Israel "in the short term, we are walking well, but in the long run, all that happens there, these variables can reverse the situation and generate another long-term macroeconomic landscape".

"The problem is the lack of courageous economic policy and structural reforms are needed," Filut continues. "If Israel wants to make the jump now, he says, he has to expand the machine, because with this machine, Israel can generate this economic growth and nothing else."
To enlarge the machine, he said, "we must invest in public transport, we must change the regulations, cut the wings of unions in ports, trains, increase productivity, carry out structural reforms that have a political cost that Netanyahu he is not willing to pay "and Gantz would not do it either, he said.

To improve the social situation, Rynhold said, concrete measures would be needed to "weaken the oligopolistic power of the economic elite that artificially increases the cost of living" and "redirect funds to settlements, for example for train network "and other infrastructure. "It would require a center-left government, but I do not think it will happen," he said.

Rynhold summed up the situation at the political level: "In the economy, there is little or no ideological difference between left and right parties, but their budget priorities are different, because the more a coalition is right, the more funds go to ultra-Orthodox religious institutions and settlements in the occupied territories.

What is left to make the difference between the candidates? The ideological appears strongly in Israel but not as much as to shape the next Knesset. Netanyahu's criticisms of corruption and demagoguery are limited to the bank waiting line or the falafel-eating bar and seem to worry foreign badysts more.

The qualification of Netanyahu as "King Bibi" has gained a certain notoriety precisely because of an article of L & # 39; economist, which placed the Israeli in the same league "nationalist" of, for example, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, or the prime ministers of India, Narendra Modi, and Hungary, Viktor Orban.

"King Bibi is a parable of modern populism"In Israel, as elsewhere, politics is a confusing mix of concrete measures and a cynical erosion of institutions," he added.

Whatever it is, on Tuesday, it's unlikely that anyone will remember what he said L & # 39; economist. By voting, Israelis will choose who they think they can avoid more Hamas rocketslower the price of milk and departments and open more stations.