Elections in Peru: Pedro Castillo was one step away …

From Lima. There is no official result yet, but the vote counting trend favors Pedro Castillo, the rural teacher who was the surprise of these elections. The victory of the leftist candidate cannot be assured with absolute certainty due to the narrow gap with his rival, but at this point, with 96% of the votes already counted, it seems almost certain. With his third loss in sight, right wing Keiko Fujimori began to speak, without presenting any serious evidence, of fraud. It was predictable. In the 2016 election, when he narrowly lost, he didn’t admit defeat. Without any proof, he said the election was stolen from him. His complaints were like a loser’s fit. Now history is repeating itself.

Numbers

The numbers in the tally explain Fujimori’s reaction. With 96.7 of electoral files already counted, Castillo retains a minimum advantage: 50.3 against 49.7%. In terms of votes, this difference represents 107,000 votes, out of a total of more than 18 million already counted. As the votes were cast from overseas on Tuesday, Keiko narrowed the difference somewhat, which at one point was close to 100,000 votes. On the right, they were excited when that distance fell to below 50,000 votes at one point and the trend indicated that it would continue to drop with voices from abroad, but then quirky voices came in from rural areas. and the difference widened further, reaching 107,000 votes. A distance which seems irreversible, but which the right refuses to accept. The authorities cannot formalize a winner until the scoring is complete.

With 56% of the votes from abroad already counted, candidate Fujimori obtained two-thirds of these votes. The right made calculations of the votes from abroad, which got them excited with the possibility of overturning the result. But as the count went on, the numbers didn’t show them. It is estimated that there are between 150,000 and 200,000 votes from abroad, maybe something more. With the tendency of a two-to-one advantage on the right among these voters, Keiko would derive among the votes yet to be calculated an advantage of between 50,000 and 100,000 votes, which would not be enough to pass over 100. 000 that Castillo takes you. But in Fujimorism, they insist that they can turn things around.

Of the votes cast in the country, just over one percent remains. They come from rural areas and remote populations, delayed by the distance between polling stations and computer centers and transport difficulties. The majority of votes favor Castillo. It is estimated that the votes will finish counting, with the latest arrivals from abroad, between this Wednesday and Thursday. But the official announcement of the winner could take more days if the disputed votes exceed the difference between the two candidates. Everyone is doing math, speculating on how the last numbers can move. Castillo breathes better. Keiko talks about fraud.

Keiko denounces without proof

Before these elections, along with the polls against Fujimorism, Keiko’s media environment had disseminated false or badly manipulated information to discredit the electoral bodies.

Among the unproven accusations launched by a Keiko who once again seems unable to accept his defeat, still unofficial but that everything indicates would be confirmed, the Peru Libre party of Castillo is accused of contesting acts that the Fujimoristas say give more votes to their candidate. The data does not support this load. The observed records are said to total around 300,000 votes, or just over one percent of the total, an amount similar to other electoral processes, and there is no evidence that most of the observed votes come from Keiko. This takes away from Fujimori’s version of an “excessive” challenge of votes against him. And these votes are not annulled, but passed on to the electoral authorities for examination, which, if they do not find grounds for dispute, include them in the final tally.

Keiko also presented a few cases of alleged irregularities at the polling stations, isolated cases, such as a few ballot papers which he said were pre-marked but never reached the amphora. This is under investigation, but it did not affect the electoral process.

Tuesday, with Keiko’s statements aimed at sullying the electoral process circulating in all media, Fujimori supporters demonstrated outside the premises of the National Organization of Electoral Processes (ONPE), in charge of the counting of votes. “Fraud, fraud,” they shouted. A majority came from the residential areas of the capital, which overwhelmingly supported the right-wing candidate. Nearby, supporters of Castillo also demonstrated. They shouted “no to fraud”, given the possibility of losing in the last handful of votes left to be counted or at the table. The police separated the two groups.

Transparent elections

However, international observers have dismissed Fujimori’s claims. The observation mission of the Inter-American Union of Electoral Organizations indicated that the electoral process “was organized correctly and successfully in accordance with national and international standards”.

Ivan Lanegra, Secretary General of the Civil Association for Transparency of Peru, stressed that “a fraud involves a set of systematic and generalized actions that significantly affect the electoral result. We have more than 86,000 polling stations in the country and abroad. Five cases, which must be duly investigated, do not in any way imply an indication that allows us to use the word fraud. “

Peruvian electoral bodies have gained a reputation for conducting transparent elections. The last case of electoral fraud dates back to the year 2000 and was committed by Fujimori. It was the blatant fraud for the re-election of Alberto Fujimori. A fraud reported by international observers. When the Fujimori regime fell, there were still fair elections.

The next day

After dropping the fraudulent bomb, Keiko fell silent. He spent a good part of Tuesday at his local holiday. Castillo didn’t speak either. He was also at his party’s premises, where he held meetings with close collaborators.

With a rise in the dollar and a fall in the stock market, Castillo’s team have released a statement that seeks to allay fears over the fear campaign the right wing has developed against him. In this declaration, they assure that in their government there will be no nationalization, expropriation or confiscation of savings, as the right-wing campaign has assured it will happen. But they went further, and described as positive the management in recent years to have had the Central Reserve Bank which directs monetary policy, and assured that they would respect its autonomy. They also announced that they would apply for the dialogue with employers. And they reaffirmed that there will be a tax reform so that those who have more pay more taxes and that it will be renegotiated with large companies exploiting natural resources, like mining companies, to increase the taxes they pay and to regain sovereignty over natural resources. It was also pointed out that it will be support for micro and small businesses and agriculture, and which sectors such as health and education will be prioritized.

It was a statement in the tone of an elected government.