Elections in Peru: Pedro Castillo with a slight …

From Lima

Peruvians have fallen asleep with the uncertainty of who will be the next president. A quick one hundred percent tally, carried out by Ipsos with a sample of electoral records representative of the entire country, gave leftist Pedro Castillo a slight advantage with 50.2% and right-wing Keiko Fujimori with 49.8% . percent. The difference is in the margin of error. Alfredo Torres, director of Ipsos, explained that a two point difference was needed to declare a winner. “It’s a technical tie. The result can change, ”Torres said. Earlier, an exit poll, also from Ipsos, had placed Keiko first with 50.3% and Castillo with 49.7%. With these figures, uncertainty was installed.

At the time of going to press, there were no official results. The first were announced for 11:30 p.m. local time (1:30 Argentine time). With such a narrow difference, these first partial results would not define a winner with certainty, so we would have to wait until Monday to clarify the situation.

Castillo was the first to speak. He did this an hour after the first release results were known, which he received in his hometown of Tacabamba, in the province of Chota in the Andean region of Cajamarca. He asked for calm and wait for the official results.

“You have to stay calm, you have to be careful. People are wise, they know what they’re doing, they’re smart. Comrades, brothers, compatriots, I appeal to the greatest reason. What we have heard is not official. Let’s wait for the official data. Brothers, calm down, ”he said, speaking from a balcony to his supporters, who erupted into applause and cries of“ yes we can ”. They hoped the official results would reverse the exit numbers. The quick tally in favor of Castillo has fueled that hope.

Shortly before, in a message sent by Twitter, Castillo had called to “defend the vote”. “I call on the Peruvian people from all corners of the country to take to the streets in peace to be vigilant in defending the vote,” he wrote. His supporters gathered on the outskirts of the local Tacabamba neighborhood where the candidate was located.

Then Keiko spoke. He agreed he would wait for the official results. He spoke a few minutes before the quick count which changed the result and placed Castillo first. “This campaign is over and it will be essential to build bridges and find spaces for dialogue between all political groups. Here there is neither winner nor loser, what must be sought is the unity of all Peruvians. From now on, I call on caution, calm and peace to both groups. Because of this caution, we will wait for the official results, ”he said from his local party in Lima.

A few hours earlier, she had received the results at the exit with her husband, two daughters and activists nearby. Hearing the numbers that gave him a slight advantage, he jumped with joy, began to clap and hug everyone. From Fujimorism, they were responsible for delivering these triumphant images on television. Then, with his message, he would tone down that initial triumphalism. Fujimori supporters gathered in a festive atmosphere on the outskirts of the supporters’ venue. The quick count was a big blow.

Fear campaign

Castillo has been leading in all polls since the start of the second round two months ago. A massive campaign of fear against him, with wide media support, frightening a supposed “Communist and Chavist dictatorship” if Castillo won, and some inconsistencies in the presentation of his proposals for change, made Keiko the lesser evil, and last week the election began to turn to the candidate who raised the banners of changing the neoliberal economic model. The campaign was uneven, the pitch tilted in favor of Keiko, who had the backing of the mainstream media and all economic power.

Lima, Keiko’s stronghold; the interior voted for Castillo

Keiko won in Lima and five other coastal regions. In the capital, which represents a third of the electorate, he obtained nearly 70%. If we consider it territorially, most of the country voted against. Castillo triumphed in most of the interior regions, and in the southern Andean regions, the poorest and most marginalized, it has done so on a large scale. In some of these Andean regions, it exceeded 80 percent. The election leaves a notorious division of the country, territorial and social. Division that the next government will have to contend with in a context of polarization and serious governance problems.

New government to take office after five years of a turbulent presidential term, with four presidents -one which lasted less than a week, two congresses and the last heads of state prosecuted for corruption. Former President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, elected in 2016 with a minimal margin of votes, as in this election, resigned in March 2018 in the midst of war with the majority Fujimori Congress; He was replaced by his vice, Martín Vizcarra, who, in September 2009, using his constitutional powers, dissolved Congress and called legislative elections. The new parliament, lacking a Fujimori majority and fragmented into small benches, ousted Vizcarra in November 2020 on corruption charges under investigation. His replacement, lawmaker Manuel Merino, had to resign before serving a week due to massive social protests against him and was replaced by current President Francisco Sagasti.

Analysts believe this new presidential term could be as unstable as the one that is coming to an end. The extreme polarization of this campaign and political fragmentation, expressed in a ten-seat Congress in which no one will have a majority of their own, threatens to extend issues of governance and instability to the new presidential term.

The two candidates started the day with the traditional electoral breakfast. Castillo did it in the courtyard of his house in Cajamarca. Keiko moved from her home in an upscale Lima neighborhood to the popular San Juan de Lurigancho neighborhood, the largest in the country’s capital, where an outdoor table was set up to have breakfast in front of the press. The two were accompanied by their families. They agreed to thank the support received and to ask the population to vote.

The two candidates voted surrounded by supporters. Castillo did it first, at noon, in his hometown of Tacabamba. He came on foot, flanked by a crowd, while from the balconies of the alley he received the applause of the neighbors. Before voting, he visited his parents. After the vote, he gave a message of unity.

“I salute the country for this Democratic Party. I hope that today, beyond the political party, Peruvians will be able to understand that if we do not unite, we will not be able to get the country out of this crisis ”, declared the candidate. He had planned to travel to Lima to receive the results, but he suspended his trip because he said he would stay with his parents who were in poor health.

Keiko voted in a middle school in a residential area of ​​Lima. One of the affluent neighborhoods where it enjoys wide support. On its territory during these elections, it was received and sent back to applause. It was a tumultuous and messy entry and exit. “Thank you to those who supported us,” were his brief words.

The most serious incident in the electoral process occurred when the candidate for vice-president in Castillo’s formula, Dina Boluarte, went to vote. He did it in a bourgeois neighborhood of Lima. For the leftist candidate who receives significant support inside the country and in working-class neighborhoods, but broad rejection in residential areas of the capital, it was like entering enemy territory. She was booed and insulted. He was guarded by the police, which prevented him from going beyond verbal assaults. As they were yelling at her about everything, the candidate raised her arms. A regrettable example of the level of intolerance that certain sectors have reached in this campaign and of the polarization that has occurred in the country.