Elections in Spain: what the mouths of # 28A are saying right now

Beyond the fact that the electoral law does not authorize the publication of the polls five days before the poll, this 28-A is presented with very important final fluctuations, according to last-minute follow-ups – carried out on the same day. reflection – to who had access L & # 39; Spanish. And it is that the "return" of United Podemos could be confirmed by the roar of their candidates Friday in the human pineapple organized after the withdrawal of the microphone of Pablo Iglesias at the end of the campaign.

The data consulted by El Español indicates that the candidacy of Podemos, IU and Equo already exceeded 16% of the intention to vote and would have increased by 3 to 5 points since the last polls published on April 22nd. Of course, these polls were conducted before the celebration of the two televised debates on Monday and Tuesday, in which Iglesias was very well behaved. As of Monday, the rise of Podemos on the Costa of PSOE is inexorable, according to the main demographic societies.

These results could put United We as the third force for the first time since the electoral call, which was inaugurated and dropped to fifth position. Now she would flee Vox's sorpbado and at least, with the intention of voting, the churches would regain the third echelon she posts in Congress. Although in the seats, his hairpin from 46 to 50 could leave him behind Ciudadanos.

The PSOE would deflate at the end

Politicians do not give any validity to polls … unless they turn out well. In 2014, Pedro Sanchez presented himself to the leadership of the PSOE as an unbeliever of scientific studies and based his decision to go forward after the poor results of 2015 and 2016 in which he had beaten the ballot boxes and badured that the party was still at the head of the center-left.

Since then, many things have changed and the last measures of the election campaign were framed in the PSOE by the slogan "We are very close". The polls kept smiling as Sanchez announced on February 15 that the elections would be held on April 28.

However, the management of the debates and the re-election candidate's own performance made him lose momentum at the last minute. The tracks of this Saturday show the PSOE in autumn, more pronounced or clearer according to the society demoscópica. But since Monday, he would have lost between one and two points and he would now be in a pin between 105 and 119 seats.

The truth is that the last week was long for the Socialists, because the curve visible above these lines clearly marked a vee. And now it's falling. The descent that followed the arrival at Moncloa through the motion of censure – the government used the expectations of the PSOE partly for the management of the institutional crisis in Catalonia, some management decisions and the image of some Government members – corrected with the announcement of the composite date. The inflection point gave wings to the PSOE, focused on the promise of social measures, the conspiracy against the far right and the post-election pacts as a taboo barely spoken throughout the campaign.

The center and the right, stable

Despite a positive record at the PP headquarters and in the media, as well as Pablo Casado's performance on TV sets, his position does not change. The party had bottomed out with the expulsion of Mariano Rajoy from the government and it was increasing as Sanchez sank, but more than two months have pbaded since the announcement of the election date no did not allow him to take flight. He can not get too far off 18% and his MP variable would place him between 73 and 77.

The most elastic progression in the legislature is that of the citizens. Now 32 seats in Congress, it emerged as the first party in Spain between March and June of last year but was not consolidated in the campaign. The last 24-hour polls ranged from 15% to 16.5% of Rivera's, yes, still ahead of United Podemos (49-57).

Meanwhile, Vox, a party born of nothing, went from inadequate to 10% of the vote almost immediately, which coincided with the irruption in Andalusia. The ideal nightmare for the PP, taken between Cs – where some of its constituents are – and Vox – whose voters come mostly and with their leader at the top of the ranks – oscillates between the slight decrease of 11% and the slight increase of 12%. These small demoscopic divergences on the eve of the polls opened up a wide range of MPs, who would start in the 31st and could reach 47.

Average of the latest surveys

In any case, polls have a big challenge this Sunday. With an undecided percentage that lies between one-quarter and one-third of the electorate, all estimate a comfortable win in the PSOE polls. The last SocioMétrica member for EL ESPAÑOL placed Sánchez on the threshold of 30% of the votes (29.5%). Gad3, Sondaxe and Sigma Two have awarded a few tenths more and other polling stations, a little less, but no poll has believed until last Friday that the PSOE would fall by 28%. In the 24 hours following the vote, there are those who fall from this level.

The PP and the Vox are the big unknown. SocioMétrica has attracted a popular meltdown of 33% of support that currently stands at 18%. Married would lose nearly half of the votes that Rajoy had collected in 2016 due to the disintegration of the right and the irruption of Santiago Abascal. With the PP, the polls are more disparate. And it is more difficult to estimate the hidden vote or the weight of rural Spain, a challenge accented with Vox, a match for which there is no call back to calibrate the ################################################################################ 39, final estimate.

Citizens would exceed 15% of all follow-ups, exceeding by a few points their result of 2016. For Rivera, this rise can be, anyway, a bad glbad. He aspired to the presidency of the government and, until the motion of censure, the polls predicted it realistically. In addition, it would be far from becoming the alternative to Pablo Casado.

In any case, he could still beat Pablo Iglesias at his post, but the shipwreck planned a month ago would have been tempered. Although United may have been about tied with the PSOE votes in 2016, this Saturday's follow-up not only moves away from the possibility that Abascal is overtaking him, but they are giving him back.