Elections in the United States: Bolsonaro without Trump | …

From Rio de JaneiroBolsonaro was chosen, fraudulently, by the imperatives of the Brazilian right to prevent the Workers’ Party (PT) from returning to the Brazilian government. Similar to the need for US law to defeat Democrats in 2016, two years before Bolsonaro’s election in Brazil.

But Bolsonaro stayed true to Trump’s style and performance to build his speech and project his image as the new far-right leader in Brazil. His government and his speech have taken on the tone of attacks on the media – considered to be its enemies – as well as against Congress and the judiciary. Denier of science, social movements, democracy and human rights, with aggressive language,

Bolsonaro experienced a moment of crisis during his second year in office, even before Trump’s defeat. But now, without his great leader and without inspiration, in addition to his international political reference, what will become of Bolsonaro without Trump?

For Bolsonaro, the defeat of the style of government of Trump, one of the few US presidents who has not been re-elected, is a major blow. His first reaction may be the consolidation of the pragmatism he has started to follow, lowering the ideological and fundamentalist tone of his speech, forging alliances with Congress and the judiciary.

But that is not enough, because with the new government in Washington, there will be issues on which the Brazilian government will be under great pressure, especially in external relations, the environment and human rights. Regarding the Amazon, it is already possible to see the remanufactured argument of the defense of national sovereignty, denouncing the American ambition on the Amazon.

But that won’t have any major effect. The transfer of the Minister of the Environment, Ricardo Salles, to another government sector is already under consideration. Chancellor Ernesto Araujo is also unlikely to remain in office, in addition to changes in the Citizenship Ministry, in charge of human rights issues.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs had assumed, before the US elections, that Brazil was pretending to be an “outcast”. But it is one thing to be an outcast with the United States as a partner and another to be an outcast with isolated governments and without any international prestige. The Brazilian government is likely to change its external position, including in international organizations and in relations with neighboring countries.

Bolsonaro has already said in one of his tweets these days that there is a tendency to strengthen the left in Latin America, warning that the phenomenon could reach Brazil. The Brazilian government was slow, but greeted the new president of Bolivia. He needs to calm down in relation to Argentina, not necessarily in relation to Cuba and Venezuela.

The Brazilian vice-president, Hamilton Mourao, tried to soften the effects of the foreseeable deterioration in relations with the United States, claiming that Bolsonaro and his sons’ relations with Trump would be personal relations, but that hopes that the state-to-state relationship will be maintained, preserving the fundamental interests of both parties. The recently signed economic agreements between the governments of the United States and Brazil may be reviewed, as well as other agreements, depending on the attitude the Biden government takes towards Brazil. For now, the return of the United States to multilateral organizations will also condition the isolationism of the Brazilian government.

However, the biggest blow to Bolsonaro is the realization that Trumpism has failed as a form of government. He was not re-elected – a fundamental goal of the Brazilian president. It is difficult to know how Bolsonaro will absorb these effects. If he’s looking for a random explanation, taken from Trump’s own speech – like the fact that there was fraud in his defeat – as already appears in one of the Brazilian president’s tweets, or if he’s going to pretend that nothing had happened.

Either way, as Trumpism shows its limits.Trump’s defeat is very serious for the Brazilian president. Turning the election into a referendum on Trump worked and marks the path the Brazilian opposition should take to defeat Bolsonaro’s Trumpism here, too.