Elections: why Spain is a reflection of all political phenomena today

Spain

it can no longer be an example of political stability in Europe. It has changed so much that a "Spaniard who was returning home after spending the last five years lost in the jungle would have difficulty recognizing his country," writes the writer and journalist David Jiménez in a recent column published in
The New York Times.

In this short time, the bipartite system broke down, three parties emerged that may be part of future governments, separatism erupted

Catalonia

and triggered a far-right nationalist reaction in the country. In this scenario, the Spaniards will vote the day after tomorrow.

The 28-A elections, as the press calls them, are the most uncertain of democracy. We know who would win: polls agree that the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), president in office

Pedro Sánchez

I would get 30% of the votes. But we do not know who can govern, or under what conditions, and according to polls, there would still be up to 41% undecided. Below is a guide on elections that helps to understand the political climate in Spain and why its situation reflects current political trends.

The new multipartite system

"In this election, we show how far the new multi-party system in Spain, which begins after the 2015 elections, is consolidated," LA NACION Pablo Simon, a political scientist at Carlos III University in Madrid, told reporters. "We are witnessing a new party system with five formations at the state level, in a context of fragmentation and strong polarization, which can lead to complex governance majorities and perhaps the formation in Spain of coalition governments to the first time, "he adds. specialist

Simon refers to the five parties that contested in these elections and which are divided into two very marked blocks: the center and the far right, formed by the Popular Party (PP), Ciudadanos (Cs) and Vox, and the left block. radical left formed by the PSOE and United Podemos.

The bipartite system that for decades allowed the PP and the PSOE to alternate with power without major upheaval
he broke out in the 2015 general election.

The great recession of 2008, corruption and satiety with the political clbad led to the emergence of the radical left-wing party Podemos and the center-right citizens. But the panorama now fragmented even more. The Catalan independence movement, among other factors, promoted
the birth of the right-wing party Vox, which participates for the first time in national elections.

The emergence of new parties excited many people because it promised to regenerate Spanish political life. Now, many aspire to this time when it was easier to form a government with room for maneuver to plan strategies and majorities to execute them.

From political paralysis to three elections in four years

As it happened in

Ireland

,

Belgium

and

Holland

,

Spain

He feared a ten-month political paralysis following the 2015 elections. The dispersion of votes among the four main parties prevented the formation of a coalition, even though he had won the Mariano Rajoy PP. In a hurry, the Spaniards had to go to the polls in June 2016.

Finally, Rajoy managed to retain his position at the helm of a right-wing minority government, badisted at a distance by citizens. But the political twists continued. On May 24, 2018, the PP was found guilty of corruption in a mega-trial and Sanchez filed a motion of censure against Rajoy, who had to leave the presidency.

Before winning the motion, Sanchez announced his intention to call elections "as soon as possible", but then announced his intention "to exhaust the legislature", that is to say not to before 2020. His wish was short-lived. – When the PSOE holds only 24% of the seats – it rejected its general budgets and left it without agenda.

Two days after,
Sanchez announced the end of his term and called for early elections for April 28, the third in four years for the Spaniards. With eight months in office, Sánchez was the shortest government in the country's recent history. Now he must see if the Spaniards ratify him as president.

An uncertain scenario

What can happen after the elections? Will there be another minority and short-lived government, a coalition, new early elections? The scenario is uncertain. The latest polls, last Monday, confirmed unanimously that the PSOE would win with about 30% of the vote and would rally 40% of the deputies.

"This result, however, is far from the absolute majority in Congress and will not by itself be enough to win parliamentary inauguration as president," says Ignacio Molina, chief investigator of the Royal Elcano Institute, at LA NACION.

Alliances would be needed and Sanchez has three options, according to Molina: "I agree with Podemos, but it is not clear that the sum of the two is sufficient nor that the conditions
Pablo Iglesias can be badumed by Sánchez. Sitting with the nationalists, with the Basques, can be relatively affordable, but it will be more difficult and unstable if it is necessary to add the Catalan separatists. A third alternative would be a PSOE-Citizen Pact, which could be Sanchez's favorite, but very difficult because of the refusal of
Albert Rivera to support Sánchez. "

"If none of these three options works, and if there is no majority for a right-wing coalition between PP-Cs-Vox (which, according to polls, seems unachievable), the risk of have to reiterate the elections, "said Molina. The expert specifies that if Sanchez could govern with less than 25% of the deputies, now that it indicates close to 40%, it seems probable that it can govern.

Why do polls favor Sanchez? According to Pablo Simón, because of the combination of three factors: "The PSOE is the most visible party for the government, Podemos, also left, is in a very bad situation because of internal fractures and fears a victory of Vox . "

The advance of the far right at Vox

Despite a decade of crisis, Spain seemed immune to the wave of nationalist far right that was invading Europe. Everything changed when Vox, founded in 2013, broke into the Andalusian regional parliament in December. Sunday's elections would be a test for the party's national visibility. According to the polls, it would be the fifth parliamentary force with about thirty deputies.

With anti-immigrant speech, which also mixes opposition to gay marriage, feminism and abortion, Vox wants the unity of Spain. Your leader,
Santiago Abascal, former member of the Basque PP, insists on the story of a Spain indignant by the Catalan independence movement. As in 2014, Podemos was able to capitalize on the discontent caused by the economic crisis, Vox wants to capitalize on the identity crisis experienced by the Spanish.

The Catalan question well rooted

Catalonia declared unilaterally its independence from Spain in October 2017. This led the government to suspend the autonomy of the region and to call new elections. After nearly eight months, Catalonia has regained its autonomy, but many independence leaders are imprisoned and face lawsuits.

The severity of the secessionist challenge forced all parties to take a stand on the issue during the campaign. Three of the five parties that can form Government – PP, Citizens and Voxi – rely on the most difficult recipe, namely the intervention. We can bet on a new referendum and the PSOE has not pronounced on Catalonia in its governmental program.

Although Sánchez has declared to oppose the independence of Catalonia, he is criticized by the opposition for his moderate attitude. He did not specify whether he would seek to ally himself with the independence fighters after the elections nor disclose whether he would grant pardon to the imprisoned politicians. We will have to wait until 28-A to see how the future of Catalonia is solved.

The keys to elections