End of the caliphate in Syria: what now?

Radio France International International approach

April 9, 2019

After nearly five years at the head of a proto-state that, at its peak, had managed to control an area as large as the United Kingdom, the Islamic State terrorist group lost its last bastion near Baghuz, the east of March. Syria But the end of the territory established by the jihadist group between Syria and Iraq does not mean the end of the threat. Many challenges remain after the end of the Caliphate.

The disappearance of the territory that the jihadist Islamic State (IS) group established between Syria and Iraq does not mean the end of the threat posed by this terrorist organization. Not only did she have an international cybernetic network that could allow her to reactivate groups on the ground, but many of her fighters fled into the desert before the city of Baghuz – which was her last fear in the world. East of Syria – was recovered by the Kurdish-Arab alliance, supported by the international coalition led by the United States.

"We are talking about contexts where there is no state, where there are ongoing conflicts and where there is no effective control over the territory." 'part of it is desert and very difficult to control, it is likely that jihadist cells will reappear,' says Ignacio Gutierrez de Teran, professor of Arab and Islamic studies at the Autonomous University of Madrid. "It would not be surprising that, in the coming months, we would hear again that the EI group has reappeared and that it has taken control of a locality," said the Minister. a road, a checkpoint or a strategic site, "said the expert at RFI.

A special tribunal to judge jihadists?

Since January, more than 65,000 civilians have left the Baghuz area in eastern Syria. Among them, several thousand jihadists are currently held by Kurdish and Arab forces. What will happen to them? Many of them are foreigners and their country of origin refuses to repatriate them and to try them on their territory.

"The main problem is to know what kind of legislation is applied to them, it is not guaranteed that they are condemned, it would have to prove that they belong to an armed terrorist group, in l? the Islamic State group, and perhaps not so simple, "explains Gutiérrez de Terán. In addition, these countries take into account the negative effects that this could have on their public opinion and "the possibility of contagion to certain sectors of their societies," said the expert.

Syrian Kurds demand the support of the international community and the countries of origin of the jihadists. But his proposal to create a special international tribunal to try them seems difficult to achieve.

"This could be an option to create a special court, the problem is that this type of court is very slow: you must first train them, you must find the specialists, you must judge …", says Laura Ruiz de Elvira Carrascal, specialist of Syria. Institute of Research and Development in France. "The whole process requires a lot of time and energy when we have, in each of our states, judicial systems that could and should take care of their own jihadists," Ruiz said.

The future of the caliphate's children

On the other hand, tens of thousands of family members of jihadists – women and children – are being held in a UN-run IDP camp near Baghuz.

"Thousands of these children do not have the papers but can claim the nationality of their parents and we find that the different countries of origin want to remove the nationality of their jihadist parents and not to welcome these children", explains Ruiz. "France recently accepted the return of two or three children because they had been claimed by their grandparents … But in general, international law is not respected and many children can not pay for mistakes made by their parents, "says the specialist. Syria

Finally, militarily, the Syrian Kurds, who have set up a semi-autonomous administration in the region, fear a Turkish offensive against these territories, once the United States will have removed the majority of their 2,000 soldiers present in Syria, as promised, after the end of the conflict. caliphate

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