End-of-year bonus and "Asian" negotiation with the …

The payment of a year-end bonus to workers, retirees and social security holders was a common practice under Kirchner governments To stimulate consumption. The mainstream press called it a good holiday plan and called it populistas it does with most measures aimed at a more equitable distribution of income. When the current government partially implemented it last year, he named it Extraordinary Prime. They accepted it as a political necessity of the ruling party for the election year. They set aside orthodox obsessions such as increased public spending or the alleged inflationary impact and accompanied the measure. It will be interesting to know his reaction during the next Fiestas if the new government of Alberto Fernández advance with such a program.

The payment of a bonus at the end of the year is one of the first measures that the Frente de Todos could take to face an inflationary emergency that is already taking three months, with price indices not falling below 4% per month and increasing. 6 The avalanche of increases suffered by Argentina after the elections is as or more intense than the one that occurred between the OSP and the Sunday elections. The government of Mauricio Macri bids farewell with an increase in goods and services at the height of its management: a disaster. Let's change with the highest inflation record in three decades. This year it will be around 60%. This is proof of your inability to govern.

A bonus of 3,000 pesos for pensioners, which represents an advantage of more than 20% for the minimum pension and 10% for the average, and 1,500 additional pesos for the universal allowance per child, an increase of 55% would have a tax cost of 0.15% of GDP. "In other words, it would represent 6.6% of the debt interest accumulated during the year," said MP Fernanda Vallejos (FdT), who has developed a proposal to this effect. "Then, as part of the social agreement, it will be necessary to define a general income policy. But a year – end bonus would ease the situation in the here and now, "analyzes the economist.

The electorate of everyone's front certainly looks anxiously, just as he was waiting for the restorative signs of another order and applauded the meeting of Fernández with Braian Gallo, the discriminated president of the table in Moreno . "The next government needs to understand the new climate in the country. He must give solutions. A premium at the end of the year seems like a good measure, "says an economist who will attend the next administration. The amount and scope of payments to retirees, mission recipients, and public and private sector workers will be discussed. What is clear is that the institutional space to move forward with the policies of income recomposition will be the table of the social agreement.

An important national pact is also needed to strengthen the position of a government that is facing tough negotiations with the finance minister.. "It will not be easy. The Fund will not come in a friendly way. They will want to impose conditions. It will be important to make them understand the new order of priorities. They know that numbers do not close and magic can not be used either. To be able to pay the debt, you must grow and growth, the first thing to do is to put money in people's pockets, "Vallejos told the credit agency.

In the search for arguments for this fight, in the Front of All, a document published by the IMF last week on the situation of Asian economies stands out. He warns that "prolonged global political uncertainty, trade barriers and slowing international growth are affecting its opportunities for expansion". "Although the region continues to record the fastest growth in the world (5.0% this year), contributing more than two-thirds of global growth, the short-term outlook has deteriorated significantly," he added. he. In conclusion, the Monetary Fund suggests expansive policies and not the traditional adjustment it seeks to impose in the country. "The risks in the region include a slower than expected slowdown in China, a worsening of regional tensions, such as bilateral relations between Japan and Korea, increasing geopolitical risks and a greater incidence of natural disasters", a- he declared. For all these reasons, the IMF maintains that "a successful, high-quality, job-rich growth strategy that boosts agricultural productivity and fosters the expansion of manufacturing and highly skilled services" is necessary.

If this is the wish of Asia, Argentina also needs recovery plans for activity, employment and consumption levels.. When looking for possible sources of financing, the imposition of differentiated withholding taxes on exports, as part of a broader tax reform, appears at the forefront of the future administration's plans. Mercedes Marcó del Pont, one of the economists appointed by Fernández for the technical teams of the transition, also said that the temporary advances of the Central Bank Treasury should be recovered.. The Macri government is touted differently, with former BCRA president Federico Sturzenegger. Marcó del Pont however criticizes this limitation to lead the state to seek a private credit at exorbitant interest rates.

"It would be undesirable for the ideological blind to condition the ability of the state to recover actual sources of funding, authorized by law, such as transitory advances.. In 2019 alone, about 480 billion pesos could have been used. They have been replaced by very substantial financing with the private sector or by a sharp deterioration in the credit capacity of the National Bank, both through the reduction of its capital and the increase in available capital. exhibition with the public sector, "asks Marcó del Pont.

Alternatives to releasing resources to workers, retirees and job-seekers are numerous. The essential will be the political will to embark on this path. A year-end bonus could be one of the instruments available to start a good holiday, with a new government and new policies, more a reality than an expression of wishes.