European powers ready to recognize Guaidó as president of Venezuela – 03/02/2019

The governments of most countries of the European Union (EU), led by bloc powers, are preparing to recognize the opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, "interim president" of Venezuela in the next hours.

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Spanish, German, French and British diplomats have been pressing these days with their European partners to make this recognition a common reality, which seemed impossible at the end of this edition. Recognition could take place on Monday in the form of a joint declaration signed by most countries of the bloc or each capital. But this will not happen on behalf of the EU because the Italian government, made up of right-wing extremists of La Liga and populists of the Five Star Movement, allies of Russia (which supports Chavismo in turn) , refused to give his approval.

Spain, the United Kingdom and Germany have been spearheading the operation in recent days, diplomatic sources told Clarin. Portugal, Holland and Denmark have joined instantly. The rest did it in the last days, so recognition this Monday could happen in Venezuela from 27 of the 28 governments of the bloc, even if last night, the position of Slovakia and Greece raised doubts.

The recognition would come at the end of the eight-day period that the main powers of the bloc, with the exception of Italy, gave Nicolás Maduro to announce the call for early presidential elections. The same day that Madrid, followed by Berlin, Paris and London, launched the ultimatum, the Venezuelan ambbadador to the United Nations rejected it.

The diplomacy of the countries that are at the forefront of the recognition of Guaidó by the European side moved on Thursday and Friday in Bucharest (the six-month presidency of the bloc), so that it is the EU that has recognized Guaidó, as a form give more symbolic strength to the recognition, although it is legally the national governments that must do it.

Austria left Italy alone yesterday. Austrian Prime Minister Sebastian Kurz announced that his government would be part of the recognition, leaving Rome isolated in its refusal. For days, Vienna refused to recognize Guaidó, saying that in international relations, states were recognized, not governments.

In fact, his refusal was due to the fact that the Austrian executive was the FPO, a far-right party very close to the Kremlin, to the point that President Vladimir Putin had been invited last summer to marriage of Chancellor Karin Kneissl, an independent appointed by the FPO.

Since the European Union's decisions on foreign policy are unanimous, the Italian veto prevents any recognition by the bloc. Deputy Prime Minister of the Italian government, the populist Luigi Di Maio, even said on Friday that his government was "neither with Maduro nor with Guaidó".

Beyond the recognition, Brussels continues to work to increase the pressure on the Maduro regime while seeking to close the crisis through dialogue and especially without foreign armed intervention. The European Union, Federica Mogherini, announced on Thursday that it would impose further sanctions on Maduro's environment if it does not agree to holding early presidential elections.

Europe maintains since November 2017 a list of sanctioned people – there are currently 18 – for human rights violations. It has also approved an arms embargo or any military aid that can be used in repression.

The 28 foreign ministers of the bloc (and no government vetoed) agreed Friday to create a "contact group" that will integrate the European and Latin American governments to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis Venezuelan. through the presidential elections.

The foreign ministers of this group, in which eight European countries (Germany, Spain, France, Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, United Kingdom and Sweden) and four Latin American countries (Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Uruguay) announced their participation, will meet the first time this Thursday in Montevideo, according to a joint statement issued yesterday by Mogherini and Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez. European diplomacy was still trying yesterday to confirm the participation of Mexico.

Europe hopes that these elections will be held "with all the guarantees of a free and fair electoral process, which can be supervised by independent international observers". The ultimate goal, according to diplomatic sources, is to hold elections under the control of the United Nations.

Europe is trying to distinguish itself from the more uncompromising position of the United States but by recognizing Guaidó and without increasing the pressure on the Venezuelan regime.