Everyone thinks they're winning; no one is prepared for defeat

In the ruling party and the opposition, they are convinced of a comfortable victory in the political party.
the elections Sunday, even by a margin greater than in the polls.
Mauricio Macri and
Alberto Fernandez They think they're winning. Monday's problem, when nothing changes in principle because the Primaries end up being a rehearsal and not a race for points, is that none are prepared for defeat.

In opposition, he embarked on a reckless path, which could escalate due to the impossibility of recognizing the outcome of the election, in case he did not win. You win or a fraud is reported. In the ruling party, in the event of Macri's defeat, no one knows how the government would be able to guarantee an orderly economic transition towards the end of the year.

According to the opposition, Argentina is suffering from hunger and misery, the situation in the street is no longer sustained, Macri is worse than the dictatorship, so that it could not never win the elections in these circumstances. If he succeeds and beats Cristina, it's because a fraud has been organized.

Judiciarizing the election result if it is not won and not recognizing defeat explains the opposition Kirchner's opposition to the charging and reporting system in the provisional control, even though this count has no legal value. It's the justice in the last exam that defines the winners and the losers.

The opposition denounces, in principle, the attempt of media fraud by absurdity: how will the countdown of votes arrive Sunday, between 11 pm and midnight, when the newspaper or special issues of Monday TV up to # 39 at 12 o'clock in the evening.

But this argument of fraud in the media is one that has always used Kirchnerism to defend his management and challenge his criticism. It is not that the government makes mistakes or stumbles, it is the press that cheats the electorate.

When
Cristina
Kirchner He justified his highly undemocratic and badly losing decision not to attend the transmission of command to Mauricio Macri. He argued that the current president was not legitimate because he had won the elections with voters deceived by journalism.

It is clear that the
In front of everybody, the main opposing force, is not ready to lose. If the results in the
STEP They go from a draw to a slight triumph of the party in power. The idea is to denounce the fraud already present for months since factories K, to try to prosecute the result or even to promote the violence on the pretext that the Macri administration intends to organize . a misappropriation of funds even worse for October.

The government is not ready to lose either. The economy, and especially the markets, could enter a very dangerous dynamic if a surprise showed in the STEP a strong defeat of the president and / or the governor
Maria Eugenia Vidal.

The economic team and the Central Bank are willing to administer the last part of Mauricio Macri's term on the badumption that a second term as president is then engaged. The economic plan only closes if Cristina's ghost disappears. The story of the Macri economic cabinet is always the same: time and trust only solve imbalances.

Maintain the budget surplus under an agreement with the
MFIs, but big unknown with the inflation that does not give in, the exchange rate and the post-election rate shift, the tax burden, the 60% rate and the snowball of the
Leliq.

The recession is not easy except in Vaca Muerta and in the countryside. Data from the industry and construction in June broke the series. Not only are they worse than the same month last year, but they were worse than the previous month. The photo is fake and the movie was so complicated.

Before the possible resurrection of the former president, there is no plan B in the government. It is unclear whether the current Cabinet will be maintained, how the election campaign and management will face looking in October; much less if an economic stabilization program is underway or what steps would be taken to avoid a financial race
strong devaluation

Does anyone suppose that one
central bank a government that has lost the election and leaves office in December can sell reserves to stop the rise of the dollar three or four months before the transfer of command? The IMF itself and even bondholders will demand that reserves be managed and not put into play before leaving the government. Not to mention the criminal complaints that would weigh on the officials involved.

Neither the government nor the opposition are ready to lose. Mysticism is utterly irresponsible on the part of those who hold power or aspire to hold it. Because in the middle of the crack is the Argentine company.

The battle that pits them is resolved in an era of extreme international financial volatility, which can certainly touch Argentina, even more so if the opposition is preparing to denounce a fraud if it loses; while the ruling party, if it does not win, is not in a position to guarantee an orderly transition in economic matters towards the end of the year.