Evo Morales and Carlos Mesa dominate the ballot box in Bolivia but the current president would lose in a ballot

The current president and a former president of Bolivia describe a contested electoral contest, which will be clarified during the vote of October 20th. Once again, a survey published last Sunday by the newspaper Página Siete de La Paz reveals a virtual technical link between Bolivians wishing to vote Evo Morales (31%), who seeks to extend his term until 2025, and Carlos D. Mesa (32%), who stood out as spokesman for the Bolivian maritime complaint in the Hague court, in a lawsuit by the Morales government to that of Chile.

There are nine presidential candidates, qualified by the votes of the party primaries of last January. However, only two of the candidates in the elections have so far chances to win: the head of Morales and the candidate of the recent alliance of citizen citizens, Carlos D. Mesa. The senator is still very weak Oscar Ortiz, another representative of the opposition forces, who is questioned for not being united around a single candidacy to confront the current Bolivian leader, who has already 13 years in power, like no other in the history of the country.

Ortiz did not appear until the month of October last year in the polls, but began to appear after confirming his candidacy for the presidency of the alliance. Bolivia says no. In the last five months, he has become the third candidate with more chances to win the race, although polls give him a 6-8% preference.

Be that as it may, the percentage of undecided remains high at six months of the presidential election and the campaign is not over to begin. A survey by Captura Consulting for the magazine Power and pleasurein four of the largest Bolivian cities, has shown that 40% of respondents still have not decided in final form by whom will vote.

This March issue reveals a somewhat different result from that announced last Sunday by Page Seven's survey, but confirms the tendency for a concentration of preference among the president and his rival Mesa.

The consultation of the magazine Power and pleasure, via Captura Consulting, place Evo Morales at 33.4% and Mesa at 21.9%. Other unpublished research by a Bolivian investigator is also reliable. Infobaelocate Evo Morales first with a preference of 34 percent and one Mesa second, with a 25%. Oscar Ortiz is third, with 8%, and the undecided are 19%. In the investigation Page seventhose who have not decided who they will vote for will reach 21%.

Evo would lose in the vote

The temporary benefit of Evo Morales in two of the polls does not guarantee that he will remain in power. The technical link, less, since it would require a second round on December 15 of this year, which the President of Bolivia wants to avoid at all costs, because its continuity would be in danger. The consultation of the newspaper Página Siete underlines that in the event of a vote, Carlos D. Mesa would beat the leader of the ruling party, the MAS, with 46% of the votes against 36%, which would give him the presidency for the second time. However, in the same survey, 52% believe that Evo will win the election.

Morales must succeed with 40% in the first round and his rival Mesa is below 30% to be reelected in the first round and finish. 19 years in power, which no one has ever done. Whatever it is, the current president has called to win with 70%. His three previous wins were won with votes of nearly 54%, 64% and 61%, which, according to badysts, is unlikely. Instead, they predict that Bolivia will have very competitive elections after almost 14 years.

A divided opposition

Despite the trend that shows an erosion of Evo Morales, the first hurdle of opposition is the own internal division of the block, highlighted last week with the first skirmishes of the campaign. Carlos D. Mesa announced the trial of two opposition politicians, close to presidential candidate Oscar Ortiz. They both accused the former president and now the main rival of Evo Morales for receiving a salary from the government for his role as spokesman for the Bolivian maritime demand, which Mesa describes as false.

At the same time, the Bolivian president and vice president have intensified over the last ten days their visits and meetings with the business community of the Santa Cruz region, commonly considered the stronghold of the city. ;opposition. Evo Morales received with Bolivian businessmen Indian President in the capital Santa Cruz, a scenario that seized the opportunity to highlight the economic achievements of his government and jeopardize the security and stability of investors. Vice-President Alvaro García Linera, again a candidate of the ruling party, was previously in Santa Cruz to announce his support for the new leaders.

According to the polls Page seven, Carlos D. Mesa is stronger in the country's capitals and in the upper and middle social clbades, while Evo Morales receives more support in the popular clbad and in the provinces and rural areas.

In the past few hours, Mesa has witnessed an intensification of his campaign in peasant and popular cities. Oscar Ortiz is another of the most active opposition candidates, but the government is perceived to be more robust in pre-election mobilizations for available resources.

Last week, the decision of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of Advance the October elections by one week so as not to coincide with the date of the elections in Argentina. Some opponents question the decision of the electoral vowels that will administer the voting process because they suspect that they are trying to favor the ruling party. The intention to advance the elections from 27 to 20 October is to allow Bolivians based in Argentina to vote without setbacks.