Evo Morales seeks fourth reelection with polls against | Internationale

Bolivian President Evo Morales is embarking on the toughest election campaign of his career in search of the fourth reelection of Bolivia's presidency in elections scheduled for October. For the first time, polls do not predict their victory during a second potential round. Morales therefore depends on his ability to win in the first round, for which he requires at least 40% of the vote and an advantage greater than 10 points. on the second most voted candidate, a likely but uncertain scenario according to the latest polls.

The Bolivian election campaign officially begins on Monday, which will have the same characteristics as the previous elections of "Morales era" and that have been criticized mainly for two reasons: the proximity of the electoral court with the government and the government. use by the latter of state resources for propaganda. Morales began his tour with a gigantic concentration in Chimore, the region where he was a peasant leader for decades. In this country, the use of a public airport has prompted criticism and complaints from the opposition, but no sanction from the electoral authorities.

On this occasion, the novelty is the relative weakness of the president in the polls, in which he ruled unquestionably in the past. The latest poll, published by the newspaper La Razón, reveals an indecision of 16% with a 38% voting intent for Morales, versus 27% of former president Carlos Mesa, a favorite of large cities. Morales, on the other hand, achieves half of the membership in small towns and in the most rural areas, where the largest pockets of the poor are concentrated.

Other studies indicate that the lower the income and the older the electorate, the more likely they are to the president's party, the Socialist Movement (MAS). Conversely, the more rich and young voters are, the more they opt for the opposition.

The disenchantment of a part of Bolivians vis-à-vis the government – despite the good performance of the economy, which grew by 4.2% in 2018 – is due to the natural fatigue engendered by a management in the process of to be 14 years old. In October, more than half of the participants will not have voted in any election that Morales would not have attended. The disaffection is also linked to a widespread perception of corruption, the desire of the traditional middle clbad to return to the predominant seat from which they were separated since 2006 and the maneuver that the president has made to be able to qualify this year, despite the fact that the Constitution I have banned

In December 2017, the Constitutional Court suspended the ban, arguing that the candidacy for the presidency was a "human right" of Morales and could not be restricted. The MAS thus found the way to put its only leader and candidate in the race, despite the fact that the majority of the population had rejected, in a referendum held in 2016, the constitutional change in the matter.

The failure to listen to the results of this consultation – which the ruling party considers "a liar", for an alleged negative campaign or "dirty war" against it – has led the opposition to consider as "illegitimate" the candidacy of Morales and a possible new government of the current president. In addition, the opposition is divided into eight fronts. Besides Mesa, the other opposition candidate who stands out, with 8% of the voting intentions, is Oscar Ortiz, representative of the political elite of Santa Cruz, the most prosperous region of the country.

The division between Mesa and Ortiz makes it more difficult the task of the first goal that independent badysts have put in his campaign: to occupy the second place with a difference of less than 10 points compared to Morales. This is the only option of the opposition to force the second round, in which, according to all polls, Mesa beat the president.