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Evo Morales will try, in the Bolivian elections next Sunday, to stay in power. I would not have reached this junction without a harsh manipulation of the rules of the game. That's its main fragility. The Constitution of Bolivia was amended on its own initiative in 2009. The new text provides that the President and Vice may be re-elected only for a consecutive period. A transitional provision established that the period prior to this change would be calculated for the calculation of re-election. Morales got a new term, which should be the last. However, in 2013, the Supreme Constitutional Court (CST) ignored this limitation. He interpreted that the first period of Morales and his vice, Álvaro García Linera, should not be taken into account. Both thus obtained a second post-constitutional mandate.
Determined to obtain the third party, the Morales Party, Movement for Socialism, approved a new constitutional reform in the National Assembly, which authorized a new re-election. According to Article 411 of the Constitution, the change must have been submitted to a referendum. This was done on February 21, 2016. And the reform was rejected. Morales did not accept this result and promoted before the CTS a declaration of unconstitutionality of the Constitution. He said re-election is a human right. And the court has proved him right. Morales ran again. This time, in the name of preserving governance, as explained by his best interpreter, Manuel Canelas, to the magazine Crisis.
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The institutional process is so outrageous that the experts who inspired the 2009 constitutional reform rushed to denounce it. Among them is Roberto Viciano Pastor. This professor at the University of Valencia was one of the leading theoreticians of the new Bolivarian constitutions of Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia. This consultation was conducted from the Center for Political and Social Studies, a foundation linked in Spain to Podemos. The justification for these reforms was the need to emancipate Latin American societies from constitutional clauses that limited power to an elite, thus preventing popular participation. In other words, they democratized the reforms.
The story had other ideas. In Bolivia, as in Venezuela, constitutions are underestimated by a judiciary subordinated to the emergencies of a ruler. The theories that have crossed the ocean are degrading in what Foucault would call a regime of practices. This gap means that today Viciano Pastor becomes the most strident critic of his former assistants. Last year, together with his colleague Gabriel Moreno González, he published in the Ibero-American Yearbook of Constitutional Justice an article entitled When the Judges Declare Constitution Unconstitutional: Presidential Elections in Latin America in Light of Latest Constitutional Court Rulings. There, he demolishes the legal fraud of Morales. The list of Spanish Bolivarians is almost reduced to a list: the former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who had toured Bolivia last July as part of a subliminal campaign for the reelection of Morales. Zapatero also served as a respirator of the Maduro dictatorship in Venezuela.
Morales will be challenged by Carlos Mesa, a political leader of the center who presided over the country between 2003 and 2005. On this occasion, he replaced Gonzalo Sánchez de Losada, who left the government in the midst of a social crisis triggered by an increase in energy prices.
In 2010, Morales also declined due to the increase in gasoline. If we add that the increase in electricity and gas is one of the main reasons for the electoral failure of Mauricio Macri in Argentina, it is understood that the crisis Ecuador is fairly predictable.
The Bolivian Constitution requires, to reach the power, to obtain 50% of the votes. Or more than 40%, but a difference of more than 10 percentage points compared to the second. Morales appears in all polls as a favorite. He takes advantage in the first round of the dispersion of his opponents. But this advantage becomes a risk for the ballot, as those who did not vote may favor Mesa. In Bolivia too, investigations are uncertain. The most recent, published last Sunday by the newspaper Page 7, assigned a voting intention of 33% for the president and 26% for Mesa. On December 15, there would be a second round. And, according to this study, Mesa would earn: 44% vs. 39%. In addition to Mesa, Senator Oscar Ortiz and an alarming candidate are competing: Chi Hyun Chung, Christian Democracy. This descendant of Koreans recommended that gay men and lesbians undergo psychiatric treatment. In one month he got 3% intent to vote. Jair Bolsonaro pollutes the region.
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