Expansionary policies of the Turkish president and his military industry threaten regional stability

In a political speech filled with extremely harsh expressions very typical of his style, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week offered another sample of the neo-imperialist plans of the government he heads. The president explained – to a massive audience of young people from his party – what direction he intends for Turkey on the politico-military scene over the next five years in the Eastern Mediterranean region, including Cyprus. and Greece, but also for the Middle East and North Africa region.

Erdogan justified and detailed Turkish military interventions in the Mediterranean Sea, Cyprus, Syria and Iraq, as well as his open support for the Palestinian group Hamas and the sectors fighting in the “endless” tribal war in Libya.

In a sample of his expansionist plans, the Turkish leader said that it is not true what geography books say about his country when it is stated that it has 780,000 km2; contrary to that, Erdogan endorsed the idea that Turkey is everywhere and explained that this is his government’s strategic vision. In this idea, he was clear by explaining that it does not matter for Turkey what Brussels, Washington or the Muslim Arab countries in the Gulf think.

However, the harshest parts of his speech occurred when he again spoke of the fallacy used by Western leaders to describe resistance movements such as Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (YIP) as Islamist terrorist groups. . The president was responsible for ratifying one of his sentences – perhaps the most dangerous of many expressed by Erdogan – exposed in 2011 when he said that “there is nothing to call Islamists”. “There is no radical Islamism, what there is is Islam and nothing but Islam,” said the Turkish leader.

During your presentation, Erdogan has informed his supporters that in the second half of July he will make a short visit to northern Cyprus, where he will deliver a message of interest to Turks that everyone should listen to, especially European governments who are acting in such a way. hostile towards Turkey.

In Washington, it is assumed that during this trip, the president would announce a very important fact related to the discovery of gas fields in Cypriot waters that Turkey would appropriate. But it’s also very likely that Erdogan will announce new Turkish policies that would affect Cyprus in terms of Ankara’s deepening power, which recently led European Union (EU) officials to declare Erdogan’s actions. on the island reminiscent of ethnic cleansing. campaign led by Turkey in the 20th century when it invaded Cyprus in 1974. This occupation was the one that paved the way for 10 years later for the establishment of a puppet state in more than half of the known island under the name of Turkish Republic of Cyprus.

The 1974 incident acquired all of the characteristics that made it an unresolved problem to this day. This was the case even though the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) had been present on the island for over 40 years. However, neither UN plans nor Western diplomatic demands have resolved the controversial issue, and the Turkish occupation continues de facto until now.

Although several Turkish analysts and hundreds of supporters of Turkey’s military and administrative presence in Cyprus try to justify it in a legal framework as a humanitarian protection force to defend Cypriots from alleged Greek ethnic cleansing. For the EU, such positions constitute a mistake that ignores the central fact that the Greek regime gave up its intention to annex Cyprus 50 years ago. Therefore, there is no valid reason for Turkish troops to remain in Cyprus beyond President Erdogan’s annexationist policies.; especially since the entire international community recognizes that all waters in Cyprus belong to the Greek Cypriot government. Therefore, any announcement made by Erdogan about the gas fields in these waters during his July trip to Cyprus, will generate a major international crisis for his government, as several EU leaders expressed during their meeting. Last Wednesday in Brussels when the Cyprus issue was discussed.

If Erdogan’s penchant for bombastic announcements is well known, his recent trips to Cyprus generate new difficulties since they open up more critical scenarios than usual, it should be remembered that since the end of 2019, the management office of the Ankara’s military intelligence ministry announced that Turkey had launched its first drones from Turkey’s Mugla province to Gecitkale air base in Cyprus. But throughout 2020, Turkey continued to develop its military aircraft project exclusively for a drone base in Cyprus. Therefore, there is currently one more airport in Cyprus, to the original one in Ercan, now must be added the one named after Gecitkale, to which Erdogan ordered the transfer of ships for exclusive military use which are drones without pilot and heavily armed. .

In line with this new Turkish military strategy in the region, it can be said that in principle Turkey used its drone base in northern Cyprus for control and surveillance activities at the same time as it used ships of its navy to perform tasks in support of scientific vessels exploring oil and gas fields in Cypriot jurisdictional waters; But now he has decided to openly set up a powerful military air base, to which he has transferred 32 model Bayraktar-TB2 attack drones. These drone models have already been used in the past against Kurdish targets in northern Syria, but also in Iraq and are currently in use against forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar, the leader and commander of the Libyan forces fighting the Muslim Brotherhood in the North of Africa. .

With the new weapons system, the Turkish aviation industry has changed the regional military equation, causing great concern in Western European countries, but also in Washington. However, it doesn’t look like Erdogan’s plans can be easily stopped. On the contrary, advancements in the new version of the drone model are state policy for Turkey. The previous model’s version of the Turkish drone only had an operational range of up to 600 kilometers, while the updated operating system of the new model allows a much greater range which, according to European military experts, can achieve significantly more flight hours and up to 2,300 kilometers of range, making Erdogan a potential threat not only in the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus but also to the State of Israel.

Faced with the complexity of the situation, Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, an expert diplomat in Turkish affairs who served in the administration of former President Bill Clinton and does so today for the administration of Joe Biden , visited Turkey between May 27 and May 28. While in Ankara, Sherman gave interviews to local media where the US official said: The relationship with Turkey is very critical for the United States from the development of their new model of drone. Despite this, Sherman said Turkey is a NATO partner, a strategic ally of Washington and a major regional force. These statements express that President Biden’s administration believes appeasement can work with Erdogan, but for the Turkish leader, Sherman’s words configure a eulogy that strengthens him and at the same time convinces him that the United States will not be. aggressive against it and diplomatically in relation to Turkey’s military capabilities in the region.

In this scenario, the US, EU, Israel and moderate Arab countries fighting jihadism should expect Turkish expansionist policies and their support for radical groups to worsen, and the conflict between organizations such as Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad with Israel are worsening in the next military round, which will undoubtedly occur in the medium term. But the most important thing Washington should assess in its relationship with President Erdogan is that kind speeches will not bring peace to the Eastern Mediterranean or the Middle East; and that the only strategy that will work in the region is to show jihadist groups and Erdogan that Turkey has a lot more to lose than it has to gain if it persists in pursuing its expansionist policies.

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