Expectations are slightly on the rise, but the economy remains a major concern – 12/09/2018

The worst is over? The definition / issue that tortures the national government breaks down again at the end of the year, starting with two statistics games. On the one hand, investigations have revealed a slight rebound in expectations but, on the other hand, inflation, tariffs and unemployment, among others, continue to be at the forefront of Argentinian concerns.

Clarin He accepted five public opinion polls that confirm this particularity. These are national surveys on Management & Fit, D & # 39; Alessio IROL – Berensztein, Opinaia, M & R – Query and Ricardo Rouvier & Asociados.

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This information is essential for several reasons:

1) Between the end of 2017 and the beginning of this year, the decline in economic expectations was "the" fact that accompanied the least possible collapse of the image of President Mauricio Macri. Can something reverse happen now?

2) to less than nine months of primaries, people's feelings about their future, say badysts, affects his voting trend.

These are the main conclusions of the surveys.

Management & Fit

The national survey conducted by the consulting firm M & F exclusively for Clarin confirmed in the first week of December a rebound in economic expectations.

The book, known as the Index of Optimism, measures the image of Mauricio Macri's government in the political and economic spheres, both in the news and in the future. The latest data showed a widespread rise of "political optimism" and a further improvement in the expectations of "economic optimism".

Juan Pablo Hedo, from M & F, explains: "In economic matters, the improvement in forecasts for the future of the economy continues, which translates into a 1.2 point increase relative to the economic forecasting sub-index.On the other hand, the index that measures confidence in the current economy has remained constant with significant in variable prices, which became 1.8 pessimistic point ".

"In terms of policy," continued Hedo, "the expectations were 1.7 points more positive and the badessment of the current diagnosis, 1.6". The largest increases were observed in the indicators that relate to the perception of future group capacity. Government to solve problems (+2.6 points) and in the one that inquires about the concern when governing (+2.9) ".

D & # 39; Alessio IROL – Berensztein

The consultant published a few days ago the survey that he carried out throughout the month of November. They were 1,439 cases nationwide. The work is entitled "Social and Political Humor" and looks at different variables. When you read the evolution of data on the economic picture, almost everyone had a pic. Always keeping in mind that they come from a very pronounced depression.

So, for example, when they ask people how they rate the economic situation compared to last year, those who choose "worse" fall from 92 to 89 points. Or when asked how they badume the economic situation will be in a year, optimists go from 34% to 37% and pessimists fall from 63% to 58%.

This company is one of those that measure "the most important problems". And it's clear the preeminence of economic issues. The ranking is punctuated by "inflation", "uncertainty of the economic situation of the country", "increase of electricity, gas and other increases" and "increase of taxes and tax burden". Just in fifth place appears "insecurity / delinquency".

Opinaia

This is another pollster who carries out monthly monitoring of "public opinion". Last month they were 3000 cases across the country. And there, they recorded several improvements for the government.

Examples? In two months (from September to November), the negative badessment on the "current economic situation" went from six points (from 70% to 64%) and the positive (from 23% to 29%) increased by six points. In addition, expectations rebounded: Those who think the situation "will improve" went from 33% to 35% last month and those who think "worsening will deteriorate" went from 43% to 38%.

Whatever it is, he insists: the rebound occurs in a delicate situation. For example, Opinaia said that more than 70% of those polled had reduced "much / enough" their expenses for "going out to dinner" or their "outings to the cinema, the theater, recitals". 87% say "look for promotions" and 80% prefer "quality prices".

M & R – Query

This measure has a visible face Gustavo Marangoni, a former sciolist leader. Between late November and early December, they relieved their responsibilities 1224 cases throughout the country.

The consultant makes a double tracking on the look in the economy: on the one hand, the staff; on the other, the general of the country. Both showed a slight improvement. "The index of the personal economy" went from 31 to 33.9 points; and "Index of the Argentine economy", from 30 to 31.4.

The work of this company also shows the preponderance of the concern about economic issueslead inflation (38%) and unemployment (30%). The third and fourth appear, very far, insecurity (15%) and corruption (12%).

Ricardo Rouvier & Asociados

This consultant, who worked for years for Kirchner and continues his studies at Unidad Ciudadana, presented his monthly follow-up days, which were extended until the early days of December to measure the effect of the G20. As Clarín said, in addition to confirming the electoral polarization between Cristina and Macri, there has been a positive impact on the president's image after the international summit.

Rouvier also recorded a improvement for the government on a sensitive subject: rising prices. Since September, the number of respondents has decreased, which considers that inflation "will not fall" (from 70.8% to 65.7% in November) and, at the same time, those who think that "will decrease" ( 13%). 3% to 17.6%).