Experts: Block Huawei points to his Achilles heel and puts his survival at risk

Huawei, the world leader in mobile phone equipment and number two in smartphones, has a weak point: his dependence on American technology electronic "chips", with which he equips his mobile phones.

Allegating reasons of national security, the President Donald Trump it prohibited US groups from trading in telecommunications with foreign companies considered "dangerous" for national security, with Huawei as the main target, suspected of espionage in favor of Beijing.

The blow is hard for American groups, who had Huawei among its biggest customers, but could be fatal for the giant based in Shenzhen, in southern China.

"The worst would be a total reduction of their access to US technology," says the consulting firm Eurasia Group. Huawei "could not possibly survive in its current form".

The immediate consequence of the Trump government's decision was that Google announced Sunday that it would cut ties with Huawei, while the Chinese group depends on the US giant and its Android system, used by the vast majority of smartphones in the world. world. . Without Android, Huawei can hardly convince its customers to buy mobile phones without applications Gmail, Google Maps or YouTube, to name only the best known.

"This is a huge setback for Huawei's smartphones division," said Professor Ryan Whalen of the Law and Technology Center of the University of Hong Kong.

Huawei says it is preparing its own operating system, but the current duopoly formed by Android and iOS, the Apple system, seems impossible to dethrone, as shown by the failures of Nokia, Blackberry and Microsoft in this area.

With its network hardware, Huawei is touted as the undisputed leader of 5G, the fifth generation mobile phone that will provide ultra-fast internet access, especially to the Internet of Things.

But again, Huawei is also vulnerable: it buys $ 67,000 million worth of equipment each year, of which $ 11,000 million is manufactured by US manufacturers.

According to Eurasia, the big chip producers Qualcomm, Qorvo and Texas Instruments have already suspended their deliveries to Huawei, in the hope that the situation will calm down, which made the publishers of Oracle and Microsoft programs.

This can "totally compromise" Huawei's ambitions in 5G, warns the firm. Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, a former Chinese army engineer, dismissed the fears and said the group had flea reserves and could produce them themselves. But industry experts are not convinced.

"There is no possibility for society to survive sustainably (…) without access to the global supply chain," says Eurasia.

Huawei has indeed created its own chip production subsidiary, HiSilicon, but this subsidiary is also affected by US sanctions.

The Chinese group, private but not listed on the stock market, can count on the support of the communist regime. But its survival will depend to a large extent on the true intentions of the US president, who could simply use it as a pawn in his trade war against Beijing.

To resist the attacks of Washington, Huawei relies on the support of the Europeans, that the Trump administration tries to take away from the Chinese group.

One of the goals of Huawei's technological isolation is to force the Europeans to set aside the Chinese group for the installation of 5G, according to Eurasia.

Several countries, such as Germany, France and the Netherlands, are currently resisting the US offensive.

But in case of increasing pressure from Washington, "it will be very difficult for the EU to continue working with Huawei," warns Guntram Wolff, director of the Brussels think tank Bruegel.