External front: the IMF warns the G-20 that the resolution of the trade war "is a priority"

WASHINGTON.- The International Monetary Fund (

MFIs

urged to resolve the trade war between

United States

and

China

, noting that this should be an "immediate priority" of the G-20, and updated the price of the dispute between Washington and Beijing started by

Donald Trump

: a loss of US $ 455 million, or 0.5% of the global gross product planned for next year.

In anticipation of the meeting of G20 ministers in Japan, to be held next weekend, the Director General of the IMF,

Christine Lagarde

warned of "growing concern over the impact" of the trade war, saying that if all tariffs announced by Trump and the Chinese president,

Xi Jinping

the global economy will suffer, which has already begun to be reflected in the volatility in which financial markets seem to be stuck.

"The immediate priority is to resolve current trade tensions while intensifying the modernization of the international trading system," said Lagarde, in a commentary published by the IMF, as well as a note on the global situation. Lagarde opened his remarks by mentioning Fukuoka, the city in Japan where will be held the meeting of ministers, recognized – he said – his openness to trade and innovation.

"This spirit is more than ever needed to help reduce trade tensions and eliminate other hurdles on the path to more sustainable and sustainable growth." The goal should be d & # 39; to help and not to hinder global growth, "he said. The guard

The IMF official said the commercial offer could reduce investment, productivity and global growth. "
The proposed US tariffs in Mexico are also worrying, "he added, citing Trump's threat to tax all purchases in Mexico by 5 percent, unless the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador detains migrants. returning to the United States.

The IMF estimated that if all announced and planned tariffs between the United States and China were applied, including last year, they could reduce the gross world product by 0.5% by 2020, ie Equivalent to a loss of approximately US $ 455,000. million, "bigger than the size of the South African economy," noted Lagarde.

Impact for Argentina

For Argentina, the external front plays a crucial role in bringing about the long-awaited economic stability sought by Mauricio Macri's government with the support of the IMF. The recent volatility of the markets, fueled in part by the missteps of the official plan and the political uncertainty of Argentina, warmed the risk country and dollar earlier this year, which has exerted inflationary pressure.

With the latest edits to the Fund's program, the government is now betting that an increased global calm will keep the "pax cambioia" until elections, knowing that another skid in the foreign exchange market will have a high cost on the probabilities of success of the ruling party. .

The trade war also increased country risk by pushing investors to dispose of high-risk badets, such as Argentine bonds, to take refuge in US Treasury bonds, considered the safest securities in the world. . Here again, the rise of country risk has also responded to the ruling party's difficulties in getting the economy back on track, and to doubts about who will be in charge after the presidential elections.

Finally, the offer between Washington and Beijing has hit the price of soybeans, Argentina's main export product, just when the country has to charge more abroad to fill its external deficit.

The Fund said the global economy will grow 3.3 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year. But Lagarde and the rating report both emphasized the risks. The report from the technicians of the body indicates that there are still "questions" about the strength of the recovery. "Trade tensions could persist or increase even more, and Brexit could end up being messy," warned the agency. In turn, monetary and fiscal stimulus in China could delay adjustment to "more sustainable growth and increase medium-term risks".

The agency also said that financial vulnerabilities continued to accumulate due to low interest rates in developed economies, "exposing many economies to a sudden change in financial conditions." A last warning for Argentina.