Far from Chicago, Argentine soybeans are on course

Hostilities between the United States and China follow one another. While one confirms that tomorrow, tariffs on a wide range of Chinese products will increase from 10 to 25%, the other will agree to continue negotiations, but reaffirms many of the partial agreements reached so far. Thus, uncertainty is the only concrete thing that precedes the trade war and, just yesterday, the main reason why soybean prices have fallen again on the Chicago Stock Exchange, where they are approaching the worst level since December 2008. .

At the close of business, the grain market benchmark blackboards were down $ 1.28 from the May soybean contract, adjusted to $ 299.19 per tonne, a value that is considered The closest children were the 299.09 dollars of 18 September 2018 and, much further, the 298.73 dollars of 9 December 2008.

But in parallel with the worsening differences between the US and China, which accentuates the negative influence of the US soybean excess supply, the first symptoms of "divorce" between national contributions and the antecedents reflected in every day in Chicago and in the Gulf of Mexico.

Yesterday, the FOB value of soybeans in Argentine ports for shipments in May rose from 302 dollars to 308 dollars per ton and recorded a gain of 9 dollars since last Friday, before US President Donald Trump, published (Sunday) the tweets in which he announced his decision to raise tariffs on Chinese products. During the same period, the FOB price in the Gulf of Mexico, from which US grain comes, fell by $ 4 from $ 325 to $ 321 per tonne.

This movement in the export market, which tends to appreciate the Argentine soybean – the same thing happens with the grain of Brazil – to the detriment of the United States, responds that China will accentuate its demand on America from South.

In this sense, according to the latest report of the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) on the regular loading of ships, between 2 and 26 of the current stock, 499,500 tons of soybeans are to be shipped from the ports of Gran Rosario; Bahía Blanca, 419,033 tons; 209,989 tonnes of Necochea and 219,165 tonnes of other ports.

Faced with the need for exporters' goods to cover these shipments and the urgency of factories to have enough raw material to keep their factories running, open bids for available soybeans rose from $ 205 to $ 210 per tonne scope of the BCR. However, sellers expect prices to trade between $ 215 and $ 220.

Demand also offered a commercial opportunity for soybeans, with delivery in July, but with payment now, at 9700/9750 pesos per tonne. There the biggest movement was generated.