Figures in red and a society in emergency situation | Infl …

The government reaches the primary elections with the figures in red, if the evolution of the main economic variables of the last 4 years is taken into account. Regarding economic growth, GDP grew by 2.7% in 2015, compared to 2.5% in 2018. A further 1.3% decline is expected for 2019, according to the IMF. In previous elections, Mauricio Macri said that one of his three main proposals was to achieve zero poverty. According to the UCA, in 2015, 29.2% of Argentines were poor and this figure should reach 35% this year. Regarding inflation, defined by Macri itself as "the demonstration of your inability to govern", it went from 26.9% in December 2015 to 55.8% in June this year, according to the same source. Indec.

L & # 39; inflation

"Inflation will not be a problem under my presidency," said Macri before baduming his tenure, which will result in the highest price levels since 1991. For almost four years of management Inflation would accumulate around 250 per year. According to consultant Ecolatina, nominal wages have risen by around 200% in the last four years, 50 points lower than inflation.

July's inflation, which will be published next Thursday, will be about 2.4%, according to estimates by the Central Bank. With these data, they will be 18 consecutive months above 2%. The last time the price index started with 1 was in January 2018. From there, the promised deflation never occurred, apart from the fiscal adjustment, monetary contraction and freezing food and tariffs until after the elections. "If inflation does not fall, it's my fault, I'm not going to blame another," Macri promised in March 2016, when the impact of the December 2015 devaluation had was considered to have been overcome after the removal of the measures. of the foreign exchange market administration.

One of the causes of accelerated inflation was the two mega-badessments: those of 2016 and 2018. When Macri took over, the dollar was at 9.87 pesos. And the last fence before STEP was 46.55 pesos. The dollar has soared more than 360%. The other strong impetus to prices came from the rates in the public housing services, which the government tried to apply from the beginning of its management (delayed by a court ruling) and in transport, both by the abolition of subsidies to the public service, for the increase of the fuels.

In the case of fuel and energy prices in general, the government's policy was to dollarize costs. In other words, allow producers to adjust their prices to international value, by accepting the transfer of exchange differences to final prices. This element exerted a steady upward pressure and amplified the impact of devaluations on inflation. As a result of these policies, the largest increases in utilities were recorded in the electricity and gas sectors, reaching a cumulative increase of 1490% in the first case and 1297% in the second.

Poverty

The achievement of "zero poverty" had been one of Macri's three major campaigns in 2015. That year, 29.2% of Argentines were poor, according to the UCA Observatory of the social debt. In 2018, it was 33.6%, with 6.1% of indigence. Indec's data from the Permanent Household Survey (HIC) (not yet published) show 34.1% of poverty in the first quarter of this year, of which 7.1%. By the end of 2019, it is expected to reach 35%, according to UCA researcher, Eduardo Donza, in an interview with Radio 10. "The 5% increase between 2015 and 2019 implies that there is more of two million new poor people since we started managing Cambiemos, "said Douza.

According to the latest data released by Indec, poverty reached 32% in the second half of 2018. Next month, the report of the first half of this year will be released.

Debt

In 2015, Argentina, which did not create any debt to the IMF, became the world's first debtor in 2019. The loan made last year, of an amount of $ 57 billion, was the most important granted by the multilateral agency. Economists from different consultants agree that the debt is not being repaid by the next government. Between 2022 and 2023, the government will face deadlines close to one-tenth of GDP, between private debt and IMF debt. Analysts agree that with the Fund, it could be refinanced from a reserve program to a program called Expanded Fund, which allows for a longer repayment period, but in turn requires structural reforms, such as than the workforce and the retreats.

"The current government has indebted Argentina at a record rate: the national treasury has issued foreign currency and pesos debts in the amount of $ 163,985 million; and if this amount is added to the Provinces and Private foreign currency issues, the total amount reaches $ 190.081 million, "says a report released by the UMET External Debt Monitor. According to the Ministry of Finance, the outstanding public debt in the first quarter of 2019 reached $ 324,898 million and the debt-to-GDP ratio reached 88.5%, implying increases of 37.8% and 50.9 percentage points compared to the values ​​of October 2015, respectively.

This explains the country's risk increase, which measures the overburden of interest that the country's debt has to pay based on default risk or lack of charge to maturity. On December 11, 2015, when Macri took office, he was 490 points. Yesterday, he reached 885 points, after peaking at more than 1,000 points in June.

Unemployment

Unemployment increased by 3 percentage points, from 7.1% in the first quarter of 2015 to 10.1% in the same period this year. It is the highest indicator of the Macri government and the highest in thirteen years. The unemployment rate in Argentina has thus exceeded the 10% mark for the first time since 2006. According to projections, the total urban population will be 1,920,000 urban unemployed, 220,000 more than a year ago. .

According to specialists, one of the causes of unemployment is related to the closure of businesses. They closed 19,131 signatures between June 2015 and June 2019, according to a Radar report, based on data from AFIP. It represents the worst destruction of businesses since 2001, with a contraction of 3.4% compared to the records of 2015. The reasons: falling domestic demand, lack of predictability of activities and increased financial costs. High interest rates are hurting companies to finance themselves. The monetary key rate rose from 38% in 2015 to more than 60% today.