First dilemmas of Fernandismo | Profile

The OSP placed Macri and Fernández in an enclosure that political scientists did not see coming. An outgoing candidate and a practically incoming president must coexist for long months. Precisely what Article 95 of the 1994 Constitution intended to avoid. It is true that almost all the Latin American presidents who voted for their first consecutive reelection succeeded and that this situation occurred (a situation that loses a STEP without internal competition and more than 15 points) was a scenario very unlikely. But it happened. For the next one, it will be necessary to reform the system so that this calamity does not repeat itself. Now you have to deal with it. Macri has the right to continue to bet on his candidacy, and Fernández the need – the obligation, I would say – not to risk his political capital by sharing the costs of the devaluation.

Models On Monday, an obscure and authentic Macri said, as he likes to remind us, the truth. What was happening with the exchange rate, Argentine securities and the stock market was a consequence of what the Argentines had voted. But this is not as simple as the president said. The financial cimbronazo has components of panic but also of change of model. The dollar goes up with permission from Alberto Fernández and letters from the BCRA are dropped as a result of Alberto Fernández's suggestion: "Rates were too high". The shares of Argentine companies in the Merval recover the pre-macro values. The markets, with their multiple members, know that a government less supportive of the permanent refinancing model is coming in. They do not know exactly what will happen, but they think they know what's going on.

These first options begin to write the new political profile of Alberto Fernández.

We know him as leader, chief of staff, legislator. But the presidency is something else. Maybe he does not even know what is waiting for us. The presidency on which the exercise is so transformative that the previous biography becomes irrelevant to decipher what it will be. Has Menem's career in La Rioja made it possible to anticipate the menemism of small favorites and globalization? And the trajectory of Kirchner in Santa Cruz? Are Cardinal Bergoglio and Pope Francis the same men?

Some are surely the same, but many were new and different. The transforming factor was the contact with the global scale. All other costs are related to cabotage, but the president is the head of state. In charge of the country's relations with the rest of the world. It changes everything. And Alberto Fernández has already begun to take his first steps as a purely global actor.

Vision The geopolitical vision of Alberto Fernández has not yet emerged. The role of Cristina Fernández in her promotion is indisputable. Cristina was the leader of the majority of the opposition votes. And it has been shown that these Christian votes were irreducibly faithful. Once there, Cristina's decision-making platform allowed Alberto Fernández to complete his task and to bring the political construction of Frente de Todos to new limits. The presence of Alberto has allowed to add new allies and new voters. The role of Cristina Fernández in launching this new justicialist cycle was central and inevitable, and Alberto Fernández also earned his place in the result based on his merits.

However, this does not mean that the fernandist geopolitical vision must be the same as that of Christianity Kirchnerism. In principle, because times are different and the geopolitical vision is to read the context. All cycles of justice have been characterized by a certain interpretation of the world and their choice in public policy is nothing more than an adaptation or a response to the concepts of the time. The essence of the first Perón is inseparable from his interpretation of the post-war order, embodied in the famous "third position". The real policy is international, he said.

But also menemism and Kirchnerism, the two cycles of justicialist democracy, were closely linked to a geopolitical reading. Menem, badumed in 1989, discovered the triumph of the West and the unstoppable rise of globalization. And all his government has been traversed by this discovery. In the end, the menemist doctrine is nothing other than globalism: Argentina must be transformed dramatically through neoliberal, commercial and state reforms so as not to miss the train of the new stage of international relations .

And Kirchnerism is also born from an interpretation of the time. Perhaps Nestor Kirchner had trouble finding his international identity because he had too many internal problems, whereas he had inherited from Duhalde the reading that the situation in the area had changed and that the best foreign policy option was regionalism and the alliance with Brazil's Lula and Venezuela's Chávez.

This idea, which began to emerge under Nestor Kirchner's first government, was then revived with Cristina Fernández. It badumes in full explosion the financial crisis of 2008, which resulted in the end of each orchestra of presidencies of George W. Bush, and the paradigm of the emergence of "new powers" expressed by the BRICS (Brazil, Russia , India, China, South Africa) as new protagonists of the world order. Without a doubt, all this has strongly influenced the reading of Cristina Kirchner and we have heard it well in her speeches: Argentina has been called to integrate this new multipolar world, paving the way for a general innovation of public policies.

In this way, the two justicialist cycles have been remarkably influenced by their initial overall readings. This poses Alberto Fernández a first dilemma. Perhaps, like Raúl Alfonsín or Néstor Kirchner, he will be overwhelmed by internal conflicts that will consume his first energies. Macri chose to believe in liberal globalism, contrary to the strength of his time. In his first steps, Fernandez seems to seek an intermediate place. Continue some of the concepts subscribed by Kirchnerism ten years ago, without the excesses of time. Neither Trump nor Maduro. Bolsonaro either. He knows everything that, in terms of value, does not want to be. The preview is missing. This necessarily involves a diagnosis of the processes in progress and what you want to do.

* Political scientist