First survey after unification in the province: Macri and Vidal Cristina and Kicillof – 02/06/2019

Until January 29, "the" badysts' doubt was to know what would happen if María Eugenia Vidal presented her election as governor. Did he guarantee a psychic triumph before the presidential election? Or did he leave Mauricio Macri alone in the main district of the country? But this Tuesday, when the general manager of the agents of Buenos Aires confirmed that he would maintain his uniqueness with the unique national ", the" incognita returned to its original place. With the sections blocked on the same ballot, will Vidal be an electoral catapult or Macri an anchor? And how are the power relations between Cristina and her partner going to work? Clarin accepted Wednesday exclusively the first poll that badyzes this new scenario. And this raises a provincial fight still open.

The work was done by M & R Asociados / Query Argentina, a consulting firm whose face is visible by Gustavo Marangoni, former president of Banco Provincia under the Kirchner administration. The survey was conducted between February 1st and 4th. They were 1,214 cases in the province and the results are presented with a margin of error of +/- 2.87%.

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"In all scenarios where you measure polls, and we all agree, in the province, Vidal now wins and Cristina wins, they have differences in their favor that go beyond the margin of error." It is clear that the government, by unifying, is confident that the governor will push Macri ", badured Marangoni to this newspaper.

What are these thick numbers? For the president in the first round, Cristina has 33.7% and Macri 29.2%. For the governor, Vidal varies between 39% and 40%, according to his rival K: Axel Kicillof reaches 28.1% and Martín Insaurralde reaches 27.6%.

"With these differences for the president and governor, in both spaces, The big question is whether there will be a lot of break "In order to statistically predict these phenomena, there is a methodology that almost simulates the darkroom with ballots, but these surveys are so expensive that almost no consultants manufacture them because no customer pays them.

The consultant also measured in the province of Buenos Aires the scenario of ballot between Cristina and Macri and "there is a technical draw, in the margin of error, "explains Marangoni" The difference is a point. A prioriwe think the former president would have a comfortable difference in the district. But obviously, when the option is one or the other, it is paired. It can also influence the fact that we measure the whole province, not just the Conurbano; and, although it's smaller, Macri is recovering inside. "

Therefore the polarization still in effect.

– For the President, the investigation also included Sergio MbadaWhat? does not reach 10 points; Néstor Pitrola left and right salteño Alfredo Olmedo they border the 5; and the liberal economist José Luis Espert sum 1.9%. The undecided are at 15.9%.

– For the governor, only the third variant was measured Néstor Pitrola (as possible ticket partner of Del Caño) and reached 5.7%. Here, the undecided are around 12 points in both measured scenarios.

Transfer of votes and undecided

At the end of the 18-page report, the investigation deepened its badysis of the transfer of votes. And interesting conclusions emerge:

1) Vidal transfers 70% of his votes (40 points for the governor) to Macri, who receives then only a residue of those who opt for "other candidates".

2) Kicillof transfers 84% ​​of his votes to Cristinabut another party goes to Sergio Mbada. The former president, in addition to the thick supporters of his former minister, catches the voters of Néstor Pitrola and the "other candidates". C & # 39; who receives the most "external" votes.

3) With regard to the transfer between the first round and the presidential poll (always remembering that it is a measure of Buenos Aires), the vote for Mbada (9 points) would be distributed a little more to CFK than to Macri. That of Del Caño, goes to undecided or Cristina. And that of Olmedo and Espert, to indecisos or Macri.

4) When he is cross-examined at 22% of the undecided presidential election, he pbades hardly better in Macri: 55% say they can vote for both, 26% would not vote for Cristina and 19% would not vote for the president.