First, win the elections; later the plan

"You have to recompose the real wage and find the way to growth." "There is no need to renegotiate an agreement with the International Monetary Fund." "We will promote a law that says retirees do not pay for their drugs." "We will continue to work to address inequalities in the pension system." A lot
promises and
some explanations. Until now, the two presidents have had no chance more than to accede to the presidency as proselytes about what they intend to do in economic matters.

The economy will dominate the presidential candidates' agenda on 10 December. However, neither of the two forces has so far proposed solid plans to face the great challenges of the Argentine reality. The names of those who will carry the titanic task have not been explained.

It is clear that talking about plans does not give. Mario Riorda, president of the Latin American Association of Electoral Campaigners (Alice), has been studying the issue for a while: "The electoral platform is an archaeological concept," he said. "80% of campaigns in Latin America are personalist and less than 20% are based on programmatic proposals."

In government, not only is the economy a subject that is publicly avoided during the campaign – "there is no spirit to raise these issues now", but there is no organized work in the teams for a possible second term. The former minister and current president of BICE, Francisco Cabrera, commands a work team, but at the same time, there are several competing initiatives. For example, while Minister Nicolás Dujovne is working on ideas for labor reform, his production partner, Dante Sica, is doing the same. Something similar is happening with the pension reform: Dujovne has already distributed a project that is far from the principles postulated in Anses itself, which is led by Emilio Basavilbaso. A reflection in the politics of the model of
management Socma, where competition between managers deepens the centralization of power.

However, pension reform is one of Ensemble's priorities for change for a second term. The draft prepared by former Finance Minister Sebastián Galiani, at the request of Dujovne, has already reached the Treasury office, where work is beginning on what may be the jurisdictional flanks of the proposal. There is no reform possible if the project does not pbad the filters of justice. The project proposed by Dujovne aims to improve the incentives for employees today to contribute to the system, as it will seek to ensure that wages are proportional to the worker's years of contributions.

"The concept of universal benefits for the elderly (PUAM) that governs today does not encourage workers to contribute, everyone has 80% of the minimum credit," they explain. But, in addition, the Treasury project includes a component of voluntary savings, with tax benefits, similar to that of the 401,000 euros existing in the United States. The increase in the age of retirement is not in this case a fundamental point.

In ANSES, the badumptions about what to do about social security are very different. They are more about keeping the
status though, but by perfecting certain fronts, such as the establishment of a "healthier" tax system for monotributists and freelancers. "The person with 30 years of formality will be increasingly rare, there must be a solution for the person who works in the informality," they say. They consider that the moratorium system should be reviewed because the unrestricted system would not contribute to the health of the regime and would work on social pensions.

It is not clear whether Mauricio Macri will continue to be part of the economic team or not. The tranquility of trading and the slight recovery of some indicators shortly before the STEP – the first of the forecasts that the ex-change can generate with such success in their management years – have improved the chances of Dujovne. The Minister of Finance believes in his people that he wants to stay in a second term, at least for another year. Dante Sica also aspires to follow.

In recent days it has become clear that in President Macri's closest circle they are thinking of Senator Martin Lousteau's candidate for a possible new cabinet. Although we do not know in what role. "In six months, Lousteau will be in the cabinet," repeats one of the men ever closer to Macri. Will it be a testimonial nomination? Too early to affirm. Perhaps not even Macri clearly knows who would form his office during a possible second term. Five months in Argentina are an eternity.

The team of Alberto Fernández is not much better organized. The Frente de Todos candidate has a "radial" style to manage his teams, as described by those who work with him. Perhaps the economists Matías Kulfas and Cecilia Todesca Bocco, from the Callao group, are today those with whom Alberto works more systematically. With the rest, the candidate consults specific topics, but without matching the proposals. The figure of William Nielsen is a clear example. Then Miguel Ángel Pesce, former central bank (BCRA), works on his radio. He is working on a proposal for capital market reform and is the link with the US Embbady. the director of the office of ECLAC in Buenos Aires, Martín Abeles; Sergio Chodos – who could manage the link with the IMF, in addition to the legal strategy in the trials that the country faces before ICSID and New York -; former Scioli Minister Silvina Batakis and former BCRA economist, Jorge Carrera.

The former Minister of Economy, Emmanuel Álvarez Agis, is another of those consulted by Alberto. Like Lousteau in Together for Change, it's sort of a
outsider that the candidate of Frente de Todos values ​​and that he can designate in position of visibility.

But, as with the government, there is no integrated work on economic issues in this force. "It will depend on the economy that they will leave us, as well as the number of reserves remaining at the Central Bank," they hide, for whatever reason.

The same argument they use today in Roberto Lavagna's bunker, where teams that started with great strength in March are now working with very little fuel.

The problem is that the economy will barely allow the next government the time to unscrew and catch up on macroeconomic issues. Even among the businessmen who support Macri 's reelection, admit that there will not be this time, as was the case in the early months of 2016, a wave of the same. optimism: investors want to see changes before pouring their money into the country.

Northern tour

All in spite of the fact that the Trump administration continues to show that it spares no effort to prepare Macri's reelection. Thursday, the US Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, will arrive in the country. He has scheduled meetings with Macri, Sica and Amcham, a camera bringing together North American companies. One possibility is that there are announcements regarding the removal of barriers to the entry of Argentine biodiesel in this country.

Many think that with STEP, we will at least know who is the valid interlocutor in economic matters.

The visit of a new IMF mission is scheduled for the end of August. In addition, a large portion of Wall Street fund travel is now scheduled for late August and early September.

In case of doubt, some sectors are trying to solve the outstanding issues these days. This is the case of the laboratories, which claim a debt of 3600 million dollars from PAMI compared to last year. Last Monday, the three chambers of the sector – Cilfa, Caeme and Cooperala – met with PAMI President Sergio Casinotti. They are about to reach an agreement to cancel the debt in 20 installments. Whoever will badume the government in December will have a plan contrary to his interests.

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